ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF

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Tensions arose between the United States and Europe as the Trump administration opted to relax oil sanctions on Russia.

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Tensions rise in G7 as inflation fears grow amidst ongoing Iran war. Disagreement over US easing oil sanctions on Russia.

.SPX

The Federal Reserve has updated its inflation forecast, indicating a potential rise in inflation due to the ongoing Iran war, which has disrupted energy supplies. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached record highs, but surging inflation could challenge this growth. The Cleveland Fed projects a quarterly annualized CPI of 6.43%, suggesting prolonged inflation concerns. With the S&P 500's CAPE Ratio at its highest since 2000, the stock market may face significant pullbacks without the prospect of interest rate cuts.

- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached record highs, driven by strong corporate earnings and advancements in artificial intelligence, but face potential challenges from rising inflation caused by the Iran war's impact on energy supply.  
- As crude oil prices hit nearly four-year highs, inflation rose to 3.3% due to increased transportation and production costs.  
- The S&P 500's elevated valuation may lead to significant pullbacks if inflation continues, as the market can no longer anticipate interest rate cuts to support equity prices.

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Yikes! The Federal Reserve's April and Quarterly Annualized Inflation Forecast Was Just Updated -- and It Isn't Pretty

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SCHH

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.23% as of April 23, marking the lowest level in three spring homebuying seasons, according to Freddie Mac. This decline follows a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Increased purchase applications and refinance activity indicate market momentum. Homebuilder stocks are rising, but inflation and yield pressures remain concerns, as stalled negotiations could lead to higher oil prices and inflation, impacting the 10-year Treasury yield closely related to mortgage rates.

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Mortgage Rates Dip to 'Lowest Level in the Last Three Spring Homebuying Seasons'

03175

VTIP

Pete Buttigieg accused Donald Trump of worsening inflation through tariffs, energy policies, and geopolitical tensions. He stated that inflation has tripled in just one month and is now higher than when Trump took office. Buttigieg criticized the administration for actively contributing to rising costs, particularly through tariffs and energy-related decisions. He linked the inflation surge to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has driven energy prices up. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March, with a significant increase in energy prices, while core inflation remained stable.

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Trump Vowed To Lower Inflation, But He Is Driving It Up, Says Pete Buttigieg: 'Tripled From Just One Month Ago'

.DJI

The global economy is facing rising inflation and slower growth due to the Iran war, according to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. She highlighted the conflict as a "negative supply shock" affecting prices worldwide, with the IMF revising its growth projections downward. The impact varies globally, with oil-exporting nations better positioned than oil-importing countries, particularly in Asia. The IMF estimates affected nations will need $20B to $50B in additional financing, while the ability to respond is limited by high debt levels. Policymakers face challenges in mitigating the economic impact.

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Global economy faces rising inflation and slower growth – IMF’s director

INFL

The article discusses concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation reminiscent of the 1970s, driven by supply shocks, particularly in oil prices. Despite hopes for stabilization, the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicates significant increases in wholesale prices, with a 3.4% rise over the past year, the largest since February 2025. The ongoing war has exacerbated oil price spikes, leading to rising costs in transportation and consumer goods. The author warns that even if the crisis resolves, prices may take time to stabilize, echoing historical inflation patterns.

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Fear Of The Second Wave

GS-C

Goldman Sachs anticipates a gradual easing of core inflation in February, forecasting a 0.17% month-on-month rise in core CPI, below the 0.2% consensus, leading to a year-on-year core inflation of 2.42%. Headline CPI is expected to increase by 0.18%. Factors contributing to this moderation include declining used car prices and stable airfare costs, while tariffs may introduce upward pressure on certain goods. The upcoming CPI report is crucial for assessing U.S. inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments.

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Goldman Sachs February CPI preview signals gradual inflation slowdown, not everyone agrees

The NY Fed's latest survey indicates stability in inflation expectations, with a slight decrease to 3% for the next year. However, the survey does not reflect the impact of rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict. Job market views are mixed, with respondents expecting lower unemployment but finding job searches more challenging. Credit access appears to have tightened, though future prospects are more optimistic. The upcoming University of Michigan report may provide further insights into consumer sentiment amid these economic pressures.

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NY Fed survey finds relative calm in inflation expectations ahead of Iran war

CPII

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research posted on X, questions the PCE-CPI chart's residual seasonality over 40 years of data. He asks why this phenomenon isn't observed in other years.

ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF(RINF.US)