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AI GossipAug 5, 2026 at 01:56 AM
Silicon wafer production continues to tighten as demand recovers, said GlobalWafers, the world’s 3rd biggest maker, adding 12-inch, 8-inch and 6-inch capacity is nearly full, media report. Chair Doris Hsu said 2027 will see meaningful revenue growth as new 12-inch capacity comes online in Texas and Italy (Novara), along with the ramp up of high-end wafers such as SOI (Silicon-On-Insulator). GlobalWafers inked a 10-year agreement to supply Micron, gaining a US$500 million prepayment, and is now in talks with multiple clients on long term agreements (LTAs). $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $SSNLF #GlobalWafers #ShinEtsu #SUMCO #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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SerenityJun 11, 2026 at 04:15 PM
Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US).
Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear.
Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand...
With $Intel(INTC.US), $IQE, $XFAB, $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Wolfspeed(WOLF.US), $SOI, $SIVE, and others...
If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains.
Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones.
As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid.
I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today.
Especially if $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America.
Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later.
US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.
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SerenityJun 4, 2026 at 03:45 AM
Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher.
Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) / $Meta Platforms(META.US) / MSFT / $Amazon(AMZN.US) from 2025 to 2030.
Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings.
“Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.”
And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components.
And so on…
Ai names don’t move in a straight line up,
but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.
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SerenityMay 28, 2026 at 03:07 PM
Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea:
- “mass stupidity”
And said:
- $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality”
Then called it a:
- “Meme stock”.
Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations.
It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander…
Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly.
Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.
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SerenityMay 27, 2026 at 05:57 PM
Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock?
Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time?
They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are.
And have $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) / $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B.
This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag.
$XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics.
The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) pushing 800 vdc.
So $Navitas Semiconductor(NVTS.US), $Power Integrations(POWI.US), $Wolfspeed(WOLF.US) and everyone have been taking off recently.
Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago.
I just happened to point out the connections.
Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
Source: Serenity
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SerenityMay 27, 2026 at 02:17 PM
Interesting photonics selloff today on no news?
$Lumentum(LITE.US) down -4.95%
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) down -4.85%
$SIVE down -14.8%
$SOI down -5.73%
$AXT(AXTI.US) down -8.13%
$IQE down -12.13%
I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis).
Just tends to be very volatile on the way up.
Surprised about $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD(AMD.US) or $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside.
$SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week.
I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.
Source: Serenity
X
XXMay 19, 2026 at 06:43 AM
Leopold Aschenbrenner's positions are finally out — the latest equity holdings of the Situational Awareness Fund:
$878.7M — Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US)
$724.4M — SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US)
$556.1M — CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US)
$401M — Iren Limited $IREN(IREN.US)
$389.1M — Core Scientific $Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ.US)
$320M — Applied Digital $Applied Digital(APLD.US)
$142.2M — Riot Platforms $Riot Platforms(RIOT.US)
$104.5M — CleanSpark $CleanSpark(CLSK.US)
$62.5M — Solaris $Solaris Energy Infrastructure(SEI.US)
$43.9M — T1 Energy $T1 Energy(TE.US)
$38.8M — Bitfarms
$29.8M — Bitdeer $Bitdeer Tech(BTDR.US)
$26.3M — Power Solutions $Power Solutions(PSIX.US)
$21M — Corning $Corning(GLW.US)
$20.9M — WhiteFiber $Whitefiber(WYFI.US)
$20.2M — $AMD(AMD.US)
$19.9M — Babcock and Wilcox $Babcock & Wilcox(BW.US)
$18.1M — SharonAI $SharonAI(SHAZ.US)
$13.1M — ProPetro $ProPetro(PUMP.US)
$10.3M — $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US)
$8.9M — Intel $Intel(INTC.US)
$7.6M — Taiwan Semi $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
$6.4M — Hive Digital $HIVE Digital Tech(HIVE.US)
$6.1M — $ASML(ASML.US)
$5.9M — Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US)
1. The most notable change is the substantial new/increased positions in Bitcoin mining stocks and power infrastructure stocks, including CLSK CleanSpark ($104.5M), TE T1 Energy ($43.9M), PSIX Power Solutions ($26.3M), BW Babcock & Wilcox ($19.9M), SHAZ SharonAI ($18.1M), PUMP ProPetro ($13.1M), as well as Bitfarms ($38.8M) and BTDR Bitdeer ($29.8M).
2. New or significantly increased positions were established in a number of smaller semiconductor-related holdings: AMD ($20.2M), TSM Taiwan Semi ($7.6M), ASML ($6.1M), MU Micron ($5.9M), the Semiconductor ETF SMH ($10.3M), and INTC Intel ($8.9M).
This suggests the fund is taking a more refined approach to specific segments of the AI supply chain — such as advanced-node manufacturing, memory, and equipment. Whereas the fund may previously have held a cautious or hedged stance on semiconductors as a whole, this quarter it has shifted to a partially bullish view on select names. This looks more like a risk rebalancing move than a major directional change.
3. The portfolio is pivoting toward a more focused combination of miners + energy + data centers.
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SerenityMay 19, 2026 at 03:37 AM
Wow, 27,500 paid subscribers is an insane number on X.
That’s enough to help put a 1 fun billboard somewhere in SF?
But will keep sharing a lot of ideas, despite current market drops!
Got a lot of fun $SOI type monopolies in mind as your countries play supply chain warfare.
Source: Serenity
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SerenityMay 12, 2026 at 09:49 PM
Woah, rough day for Europe.
Looks like everything from $SOI to $LPK and others are down 10-20% from overwhelmingly macro.
Fun thing if war sentiment flips, as they often do with our president… lot of these names should go a lot higher.
Source: Serenity
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SerenityMay 12, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis:
"A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions.
2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis".
This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around for years".
Each are still hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns. Especially, Raspberry PI after it shattered projections by 52% to 55% fwd. rev growth from ~15% est.
And I expect all 3 ($RPI, $SIVE, and $SOI) to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating.
Maybe after each negative hit piece... it's time for European media to look in a mirror?
The ones focusing on actual fundamentals are the ones they're mocking.
Source: Serenity