Trip.com

I am glad to see Trip.com is not trading below its friday price today 😆. There is no panic selling as some had feared. Good news.

Overall, I remain optimistic about the Hong Kong market. I believe Chinese authorities will step in to support it, we won’t see any major crash unless overall market trend change drastically. Hence, Chinese authorities intervene gives investors and companies much-needed confidence.

This week is all about the Fed meeting . I expect stocks and metals to swing wildly like a roller coaster, especially tech names. Buckle up for a bumpy ride! 😆 . No “BUY” button for this week just ride my Green dragon 🐉☺️.

$TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)

Just wanted to share why I am still bullish and positive on my Trip.com shares even after that big fine.

Honestly, I see the penalty as good news in a way. This is because the uncertainty is finally over. The company accepted it and they can move on now.

The business is strong:

· Revenue grew 17% last quarter

· International bookings are booming (+40–50%)

· Top analysts still say ‘Buy’

· The stock is cheap – only 6.4 times earnings

Yes, the fine is large but Trip.com has plenty of cash to cover it.

Travel is bouncing back and this company is a winner. I’m holding tight☺️

$TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)

🚨 Trip.com’s Record Penalty: What You Need To Know

The wait is over! Trip.com was hit with a ¥5.18 billion total penalty. The harshest antitrust fine in SAMR history at 7.5% of revenue, nearly double Alibaba’s and 2.5x Meituan’s.

It includes a base fine plus ¥1.66B clawback of illegal gains, and new rules. No exclusivity deals, algorithm overhauls and 3 years of strict compliance reporting.

The good news? Uncertainty is gone.

Based on Trip.com’s strong balance sheet, it can easily absorb this cost. ☺️

$TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)

Today I bought Trip.com after reviewing its financials data and valuation ratio. I believe it is the right time to invest fundamentally sound company.

Right now, the stock is weighed down by China’s ongoing SAMR antitrust investigation which is expected to wrap up and be announced any day now.

It’s fundamentals stay rock-solid:💪🏽

✅ Fortress balance sheet: Net cash of HK$49.7 billion. Enough to pay off all debt completely, with plenty left over

✅ Interest coverage ~34x: No risk of trouble servicing debt anytime soon

✅ Low P/E and P/B: This comes from regulatory uncertainty and not weak business. Trip.com still runs strongly with high margins and ample liquidity.

Once the result is out, the biggest unknown will be gone and that is when the real value can shine through.

$TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)

Will Trip.com Surge Once The Probe Ends 🤔?

Trip.com shares have taken a hit lately, weighed down by China’s ongoing SAMR antitrust investigation.

But history shows: even hefty fines often spark big rebounds once uncertainty clears. Here is what we learned from Alibaba and Meituan’s 2021 cases:

💡 3 Key Lessons From The Past

✅ Uncertainty hurts more than bad news

Stocks get punished hardest while probes are open. When Alibaba and Meituan were fined, both jumped 5–10% on day one and 10–20% within weeks. Putting a number on the penalty removes the “worst-case” fear.

✅ Immediate relief rally is likely

Short sellers will cover positions, and waiting institutional money will jump in and drive an initial jump once the decision is official.

✅ Long-term growth depends on rules and not fines

A fine is just a one off cost. What really matters: will regulators limit its core business (like capping hotel commissions or changing algorithms)?

📊 Full side-by-side comparison in the infographic above!

Put simply: The Chinese government doesn’t want Trip.com to crash and bankrupt. Chinese government needs trip.com to promote China. What do you think? Let’s discuss😁.

Not financial advice. Please do your own DD☺️

Trip.com 1Q26 First Take: likely under regulatory overhang, the company finally released its delayed Q1 results. Overall, three takeaways stand out: 1) results remained solid with healthy revenue growth and profits; 2) the regulatory review is ongoing, with final remediation and any penalties still undisclosed; 3) management guided next-quarter revenue growth to just 3%–8%, with profitability to be hit as well, a post-pandemic low that signals regulatory impact starting to bite.

Revenue grew ~17% YoY, a modest slowdown from the 20%+ pace in the prior quarter but above the 15% street view. GPM fell ~90bps YoY, but expenses, especially marketing, came in well below expectations, lifting earnings. Adj. OP exceeded RMB 4.6bn (+10% YoY), beating the RMB 4.45bn estimate.

Leaving the beat aside, GPM still contracted ~90bps YoY while total opex rose 18%, outpacing revenue. This suggests an investment phase, pressuring margins (OPM narrowed 120bps YoY) and leading to limited profit conversion from top-line growth.

While current results are decent, the key issue is the very weak guide for next quarter. Management cited two drivers: the U.S.-Iran conflict and higher oil prices weighing on travel in affected regions, and voluntary operating adjustments to comply with regulators.

As the Middle East is not Trip.com's core overseas market, and OTA peers have actually traded well recently on World Cup tailwinds, Dolphin Research believes the U.S.-Iran conflict is not the primary factor. Domestic regulatory impact likely matters more.

Details in the release are limited, so watch the earnings call and subsequent small-group meetings for updates on the review and potential business impact. $Trip.com(TCOM.US) $TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)