TSLA250620P317500.US

U.S. stocks fell pre-market (SPX -0.4%, NDX -0.7%) as global bond yields hit nearly two-decade highs, oil rose on renewed US-Iran tensions, and odds of a Fed hike in Sept jumped to 62% after Chairman Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Brent reached $92/bbl, the 10-year treasury yield increased to 4.78%; chip stocks declined, and $Tesla(TSLA.US) fell ahead of Thursday’s Austin Cybercab launch (45 unsupervised autonomous vehicles as of yesterday). S&P 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb to $364 (+31% y/y), implying a 2026 P/E of 21.1x and a 4.7% earnings yield which is below 10yr Treasuries for the first time since early 2024 and before that the Internet bubble of 2000. I am skeptical about a pre-midterm Fed rate hike given slowing job growth and the seeming temporary nature of the Brent crude supply shock. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term earnings estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 220x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6.3x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.

Production already started at Giga Texas months ago so Wednesday isn't really a hardware reveal, it's a fleet-economics reveal. Cost-per-mile, city expansion timeline, whether they'll even give a real number instead of another "coming soon." That's the part that actually moves the stock either way.

today's +5% already has some of Wednesday priced in ngl, curious if it holds or if this turns into a sell the news setup like some of the other launch events did