Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF

The U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ended poorly, with the 20-year Treasury yield breaking 5% and the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5%, advancing to 4.6%. The outcome aligns with Dolphin Research's analysis in the weekly strategy report: once the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5% and continues to rise, U.S. stocks follow with a correction. Regarding the surge in Treasury yields, Dolphin Research also noted in the report that while Trump claims to be a fiscal hawk, his tax cuts ultimately result in significant deficit policies.This means the deficit issues from the pandemic-era stimulus remain unresolved, and the federal government is adding more debt. The lack of market confidence naturally led to lower auction prices for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, strange developments are occurring with Japanese bonds: Japan was the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, but now Japan and the U.S. are negotiating, with the U.S. pushing for yen appreciation. From a trading perspective, yen appreciation against the dollar would expose Japanese private institutions holding U.S. Treasuries to exchange rate risks. Japanese insurers, similar to those in Taiwan, previously did not hedge against currency risks during the dual rise of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Thus, the optimal move during yen appreciation is to repatriate funds: sell U.S. Treasuries and buy Japanese bonds.However, the latest news indicates the negotiations failed, meaning trades based on expected agreements must now be unwound—buying U.S. Treasuries and selling yen. The result is a yen correction and rising Japanese bond yields.$VG Long-Term(BLV.US), $ProShares Shrt QQQ(PSQ.US), $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US), $Currencyshares JPY Trust(FXY.US), $Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF(UDN.US)Additional note: Overseas creditors hold about 30% of U.S. Treasuries, with over 15% held by foreign private institutions rather than official entities. Japanese private institutions hold an even larger share, giving them greater pricing power in Treasury transactions than official entities.<figure class="image"></figure>The chart shows Japan was indeed selling U.S. Treasuries in April, but by the week of May 17, it had shifted to net buying. In other words, without Japanese buyers, Treasury yields might have risen even higher. If Japan and the U.S. eventually reach a trade agreement and the yen appreciates, Japanese buyers may further sell U.S. Treasuries.<figure class="image"></figure> The weakening trend of the dollar is certain in this process. If the U.S. continues large-scale Treasury financing under these conditions, it’s no surprise that investors are betting on the 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 5%.Reference: &#34;Big but Ugly&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34;: Will U.S. Stocks Suffer Again Due to Treasuries? https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29808412

“大而美”=“大赤字”，美股又要被美债连累了？ - LongPort

VG Long-Term

ProShares Shrt QQQ

Currencyshares JPY Trust

SPDR Gold Shares

US dollar falls ahead of non-farm payroll report

DXY Continues to Fall, Intraday Decline Expands to 0.7%

Private Sector Adds 22,000 Jobs in January, Below Expectations; Dollar Weakens

Dollar Faces Worst Plunge in Nearly Four Years

US President Trump Imposes 10% Tariffs on 8 Countries Supporting Denmark Over Greenland Sovereignty, US Dollar Weakens

Algorhythm

Jiade

Founder

Moolec Science SA

Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund

Atomera

GraniteShares 2x Long RIVN Daily ETF

Corsair Gaming

Vivopower

Sagtec Global

.NDX

.DJI

USDU

TQQQ

The Dollar is showing signs of recovery against the Euro, with potential support at 1.1800 and a peak test at 1.2050. Oil prices have reached multi-month highs amid U.S.-Iran tensions, targeting 75.00, while 68.00 serves as crucial support. The stock market remains bullish, driven by strong earnings and inflation data, but concerns about an AI bubble persist, with 7000 as the next target and 6750 as critical support.

- The EUR/USD is showing signs of reversal as the Dollar improves against the Euro following positive jobs and inflation data.  
- Oil prices have surged to multi-month highs amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, with $75.00 as a target and $68.00 acting as crucial support.  
- The SPX 500 remains bullish due to strong earnings, but concerns over possible market corrections persist, with $7000 as the next target and $6750 as critical support.

Talkmarkets

NASDAQ-100

Dow Jones Industrial Average

NASDAQ Composite Index

S&P 500

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

VanEck Oil Services ETF

Global X NASDAQ 100 Collar 95-110 ETF

First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

United States Oil Fund LP

SPDR Energy Select

Wtree Bbg Usd Bull

Invesco QQQ Trust

Us Brent Oil

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

The Week Ahead – A Shift In The Tide

BNY clients are hedging their dollar exposure at the highest level since late 2023, with hedges nearly 20% larger than necessary to match U.S. bond and equity value changes. This reflects increased caution towards the dollar amid its recent decline. Despite heightened hedging, BNY clients have not reduced their U.S. equity and Treasury holdings, indicating that interest rate differentials are a more significant factor driving this behavior. The rise in hedging coincides with the Fed's dovish stance compared to other central banks.

Reuters

Bank of NY Mellon

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

BNY clients hedge dollar exposure by most since 2023, bank says

The dollar index remained steady around 97, experiencing a fourth consecutive session of little movement after softer inflation data. The annual inflation rate decreased to 2.4% in the last month, below expectations, while monthly inflation eased to 0.2%. Markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to hold rates in March and implement two rate cuts later this year. The dollar is expected to decline over 2% against the yen, influenced by Japan's political developments, while the Australian dollar gained strength due to hawkish signals from its central bank.

Trading Economics

Currencyshares Aus Dollar Trust

Pro Ultr Yen

Pro Ultrshrt Yen

Dollar Little Changed after CPI

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in January, below the expected 0.3%, while the year-on-year inflation rate decreased to 2.4% from 2.7% in December. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3%, with a 12-month rise of 2.5%. The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates due to stabilizing labor market conditions. Economists anticipate inflation to rise this year due to tariff impacts and a weaker dollar.

- In January, U.S. consumer prices rose by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% increase, with underlying inflation increasing due to initial price hikes by businesses.  
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a 12-month increase of 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December, influenced by higher readings from the previous year being excluded.  
- Amid stable labor market conditions, this data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range for the time being.

WRAPUP 2-US consumer prices rise less than expected in January

CVLC

The dollar was higher ahead of January’s CPI reading. Morgan Stanley noted that lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data on the back of a strong nonfarm payrolls report had historically driven the largest dollar declines.

Calvert US Large-Cap Core Responsible Index ETF

ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg

Eaton Vance Ultra-Short Income ETF

Parametric Equity Plus ETF

Eaton Vance Intermediate Municipal Income ETF

Parametric Equity Premium Income ETF

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

Calvert International Responsible Index ETF

Calvert US Large-Cap Diversity Equity & Inclusion Index ETF

Morgan Stanley Pathway Large Cap Eq ETF

Calvert US Mid-Cap Core Responsible Index ETF

Morgan Stanley Pathway Sm-Md Cp Eq ETF

Eaton Vance High Yield ETF

Calvert Ultra-Short Investment Grade ETF

Fidelity MSCI Financials Index

Calvert US Select Equity ETF

Parametric Hedged Equity ETF

VG Financial

Dollar could fall if US inflation is lower than expected

SQQQ

Bank of America strategist Hartnett stated that global capital is accelerating its escape from dollar assets, and a structural major rotation has already begun. U.S. stocks and tech giants are no longer the only safe havens, as funds are flowing into emerging markets, commodities, and international stock markets. He summarized the current trading as "buy anything except the dollar," and believes this is a pre-pricing of the "new world order." Deteriorating fiscal conditions and uncontrolled debt have become the core support for shorting the dollar, and a weak dollar may become the norm

- Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns of a structural asset rotation as global funds flee dollar assets amid the Trump administration's "overheating" policies and tariffs.  
- Since the start of 2026, developed markets like Europe and Japan have attracted $104 billion, while U.S. funds saw $25 billion, highlighting a shift from American exceptionalism to global rebalancing.  
- Hartnett advises reducing exposure to large-cap U.S. growth stocks in favor of physical assets, emerging market stocks, and small-cap value stocks, as heavy government debt burdens influence market behavior.

Wallstreetcn

Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF

ProShares Ultra QQQ

Pro Ultrshort Qqq

Bank of America

A major asset rotation is happening! Bank of America Hartnett: U.S. policies give rise to "everything is possible, except for the dollar" trades!

MMKT

.DJU

Worries about AI disruptions are causing a stock slide as investors withdraw from companies perceived to be at risk. The U.S. dollar's decline and reduced foreign Treasury purchases signal caution despite recent stock rallies. A news release on AI in trucking triggered significant selloffs. The Bank of Japan may soon declare its inflation target met, while the U.S. job market shows stability with falling jobless claims. However, rising debt levels are causing financial stress among higher-income Americans. The demand for bonds remains strong, and oil supply is expected to rebound post-U.S. winter storm.

MorningStar

Texas Capital Government Mny Mkt ETF

Dow Jones Utility Average

Dow Jones Top Markets Headlines at 5 AM ET: Worries About AI Disruptions Fuel Stock Slide | Forget ...

Indian rupee at 90.64 per U.S. dollar as of 3:30 p.m. IST, little changed from previous close at 90.59

marketscreener

Amundi MSIndia USx

BetaShares Holdings Pty Ltd.

Indian rupee at 90.64 per U.S. dollar as of 3:30 p.m. IST, little changed from previous close at 90.59

Kremlin says the dollar will have to compete with other currencies if the U.S. lifts restrictions on its use

Kremlin says the dollar will have to compete with other currencies if the U.S. lifts restrictions on its use

The US dollar is gaining some support amid a tech selloff, but medium-term bearish sentiment may lead to selling into rallies. Today's CPI report is expected to align with consensus, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase. The eurozone's GDP is expected to remain flat, and the Norwegian krone has seen strength due to rising domestic rates. In Central and Eastern Europe, lower-than-expected inflation in Hungary may lead to rate cuts, while Poland and the Czech Republic's inflation data will be closely monitored for potential rate adjustments.

FX Daily: US Inflation Shouldn’t Rock The Boat

Dollar/yen extends rise, up as much as 0.57% at day's high of 153.65

Dollar/yen extends rise, up as much as 0.57% at day's high of 153.65

On February 13th, the Monetary Authority of Macao announced that the total foreign exchange reserve assets of the Macao Special Administrative Region at the end of January 2026 were preliminarily estimated at MOP 241.8 billion (USD 30.08 billion), a decrease of 1.5% from the revised total of MOP 245.6 billion (USD 30.64 billion) at the end of December 2025. The total foreign exchange assets at the end of January 2026 were approximately equivalent to 11 times the currency in circulation in Macao at the end of December 2025 or 89.8% of the Macao pataca portion of the broad money supply (M2)

Zhitong

The Monetary Authority of Macao: Preliminary statistics show that the total amount of foreign exchange reserve assets at the end of January is MOP 241.8 billion

83161

03192

03161

03137

83192

03420

XBJF

As of 16:30 Beijing time, the onshore Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar officially closed at 6.9114, down 98 points from the official closing price of the previous trading day and down 81 points from the previous night's closing

A CAM RMB MM-R

A BOS RMB MM

A CAM RMB MM

A GX USD MM

A BOS RMB MM-R

A VP RMB MM

WisdomTree, Inc.

The USD/INR pair appreciates as the Indian Rupee weakens amid risk-off sentiment in Asia. The pair is expected to trade between 90.50 and 91.00, with potential support from the Reserve Bank of India. The US Dollar remains steady ahead of CPI data, with inflation expected to ease. Markets anticipate two Fed rate cuts in 2026, while the USD/INR shows a bearish bias, trading around 90.70, with support at 90.52 and resistance at 90.81. The overall sentiment reflects cautious investor behavior amid geopolitical developments and economic data tracking.

USD/INR Holds Gains As Asian Currencies Weaken On Risk-Off Sentiment

INDIA RUPEE-Rupee slips on broad-based dollar bids, traders see likely RBI hand in NDF

Xtrackers Nifty 500 India ETF

INDIA RUPEE-Rupee slips on broad-based dollar bids, traders see likely RBI hand in NDF