United Overseas Bank (UOB)

With 20-year yields at a record 5.42% and market odds above 90%, a rate hike is virtually guaranteed. Any surprise hold tomorrow would trigger massive market volatility.

This week feels like a game of high stakes poker , starting with the first weekend AI ghost story card, followed by no-go for clarity act card and now the market betting (pricing in) a near certainty of rate hike. Rate wise, a confirmation is not the key, but rather hints of what's ahead is needed to reduce market uncertainty.

wondering. what if Fed paused hike instead, against the market expectation. just so to buy time and postpone to have wait & see period until after midterm in Nov? lol

Iggy's Journal: Three Fair Value Numbers For One Stock, And I'm Not Picking A Winner

16 September 2026, PM

Podcast Release

New podcast's up today on UOB, and this one's less about the stock and more about a problem I ran into while trying to answer a simple question. Same stock, same day, same public data, and one data provider's own two models can't agree with each other. Analyst consensus sits near $42.98. That same provider's internal fair value model comes out at $36.37, below where UOB is actually trading. Two numbers from one source, supposedly measuring the same thing, landing on opposite conclusions.

I'm not issuing a zone verdict on this one. Not because I couldn't pick a number and move on, but because the sources themselves disagree, and manufacturing certainty where the data has none isn't the kind of forensic work I want to be doing. A crowd model and analyst consensus both point to roughly a 5% discount. An internal model says the market's already paying too much. There's also a 3.9% dividend yield figure floating around that I haven't verified against a second source, so that stays out of the conclusion entirely until it checks out properly.

My Personal Take

Honestly, this episode started as a straightforward "is UOB cheap" question and turned into something more useful, a look at how easily two models from the same shop can disagree without anyone flagging it. That's the kind of thing that should make you pause before treating any single fair value number as settled fact, mine included. If you hold UOB for CPF or SRS income, the honest answer today really is "unresolved," not a hedge, an actual accurate description of where the numbers sit. Worth the listen if you want to see how I sat with that instead of forcing a tidy conclusion just to have one.

📺 YouTube: https://youtu.be/vxjZ58M8QMg

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/uobs-fair-value-is-43-43-or-36-depending

Not financial advice.  

Cheers, Iggy 🦖

It’s Fed’s D-day. The day that everyone is so convinced that Warsh will hike. Imagine if he does not? I mean to be fair he can argue that the inflationary pressure is driven by oil prices and the data does show that. Hiking rates won’t do much to that and he needs to protect the labour market. 🤔

High treasury yield, highest debt plus printing divided money to the US for election purposes. I really do not know how high the market will go before crashing with so many bad factors adding on daily. Caution and DCA slowly into the stock if you like the stock or sector in the US market. Good chances and luck.

A 20-year government bond auction attracted a record yield of 5.420%, breaking the October 2023 high—a weak auction (the largest tail risk since 2024, with indirect bid share hitting a record low).

The market now prices in over a 90% probability of a rate hike at 2 AM tomorrow, marking the first increase in three years.

Long-term bond auction prices have been hammered; with the odds of a rate hike jumping, the future of the stock market remains unclear.

FOMC meeting September 2026 finally coming tonight. is there a rate hike ? or the rate remains ? or cut rate this time? What do you think?

The record 20-year Treasury yield and weak auction signal increased concerns about demand for longer-duration U.S. debt, potentially reinforcing upward pressure on yields. Combined with markets pricing over 90% probability of a rate hike, financial conditions could tighten further, raising discount rates for equities and increasing volatility, particularly for long-duration growth stocks. However, the immediate market impact will depend on the central bank’s guidance and whether the move reflects persistent inflation pressures or stronger growth expectations. Subsequent inflation, employment and Treasury auction results will remain important for confirming the direction of rates.

with a record on high, everyone is hoping to it will be the better. interest rate will be the question. will it be up and down?