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Minerva Morning Update

October 13, 2026

Futures are mixed heading into a heavy bank-earnings morning and the continued memory/AI chip selloff. Dow futures are modestly green (helped by $Unitedhealth(UNH.US)), S&P roughly flat to slightly red, and Nasdaq futures down ~0.5–0.6% as the CXMT overhang and related AI-sentiment caution keep pressure on semiconductors. Oil is retreating ~2% (WTI ~$92, Brent ~$105), which is offering some relief to the inflation impulse and yields (10-year easing toward ~5.19%). CPI is tomorrow; positioning remains cautious.

Memory / Semis: CXMT 4F² Claims Drive Another Day of Selling — Narrative Risk on Commodity DRAM Scarcity

China’s CXMT claims progress on a denser 4F² DRAM cell architecture (vertical surrounding-gate design aimed at cutting cell area ~33% and boosting density) and plans to launch a server DDR5 RDIMM by year-end. Samsung and SK Hynix have this on longer roadmaps (Samsung mass production targeted later, around 2028 in some reports). The announcement has hit hard: Samsung and SK Hynix down sharply (KOSPI under heavy pressure, often 5–6%+), with $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US) and broader $SMH names soft in premarket/overnight trading after Monday’s declines.

Expert / market read: The move is primarily on commodity/server DRAM pricing-power fears rather than immediate HBM displacement. HBM for AI remains tight/sold-out through 2026 in prior commentary, and CXMT still faces yield, volume, customer-qualification, and tool-restriction hurdles under U.S. sanctions. Many view the reaction as an overreaction short-term (scarcity premium getting marked down on an unproven timeline), but it is a live narrative challenge to the “memory shortage persists deep into 2028 / peak pricing / structural LTA” thesis that has powered the group. FinTwit is flagging the competition overhang as the tape driver overnight and into the open, with some dip-buy interest in $Micron Tech(MU.US) around recent levels if selling eases, while others treat it as continued de-risking in the AI complex.

Broadcom’s Hock Tan comments (comparing some AI investors to “casino gamblers” with extreme expectations and questioning enterprise token ROI / lab economics) have added to the cautious sentiment overlay, even as underlying AI infrastructure demand commentary remains strong. Watch whether the bank-earnings bid or oil relief spills over, or if memory stays offered into CPI.

Bank Earnings Kickoff:

Mixed Prints — $Goldman Sachs(GS.US) Strong, $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) Beat-and-Raise, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US) Softer

$Goldman Sachs(GS.US): Strong beat. EPS $17.01 (well above ~$13 consensus), net revenues $18.7B (+23% YoY). Equities revenue +72% on volatility; IB fees +21% with record advisory. Stock up solidly premarket. CEO Solomon noted a complicated environment but solid client activity and positioning.

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US): Clear beat-and-raise. Adj EPS $4.69 vs ~$4.14 expected, revenue $112.7B beat; medical cost ratio better than feared (88.4% vs ~89.9%). Raised full-year profit outlook. Stock up ~3–5% premarket. Management highlighting progress managing elevated medical costs via value-based care and AI.

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US): Miss. EPS $5.57 (or ~$5.75 ex items) vs ~$5.90 expected; revenue light. IB fees moderated sequentially (still up YoY); markets solid. Raised NII guidance. Stock softer. Dimon commentary cautious on large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising rates, and geopolitics despite resilient consumer/business activity.

$Wells Fargo(WFC.US): Roughly in-line to slight beat on EPS, revenue light; credit metrics solid.

Overall tone is cautious optimism on the consumer and trading, but investors are parsing guidance and credit closely against high yields and geopolitical noise. Options had priced meaningful moves (especially $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) and $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US)).

Macro & Other

Oil’s decline is the clearest near-term positive for inflation/yields after recent upward pressure tied to Middle East risks (Saudi supply concerns, regional tensions). Michigan preliminary sentiment fell to 46.3; year-ahead inflation expectations ticked to 4.7% (5-year to 3.5%). Fed speakers (including Waller) and existing-home sales data are on the calendar today; CPI tomorrow is the bigger data catalyst.

Selective analyst action includes positive software notes (e.g., $Salesforce(CRM.US) double upgrade at BofA on AI agents/cash flow) offsetting some broader tech caution. Premarket has heavy speculative volume in microcaps (biotech names like $Bio-key(BKYI.US), $Alaunos Therapeutics(TCRT.US) and others gapping hard), but these are lower-quality for multi-day swing setups.

Bottom line for traders: The live narrative is Chinese memory competition challenging the commodity DRAM scarcity premium while HBM/AI demand remains the structural support. Bank results are providing a partial offset via $Goldman Sachs(GS.US) / $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) strength, but the tape is still sensitive to any further AI de-risking or inflation data. Minimize drawdowns by respecting the memory overhang and CPI setup rather than forcing dips into unconfirmed reversals.

NFA / DYOR. Not investment advice.