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German March Services and Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Values to be Released

Eurozone Stock Futures Fall Collectively

Euro Stoxx 50 and German DAX Index Futures Down

German January Import Price Index Rises 1.1% MoM

Germany Q4 GDP adjusted for working days 同比增长终值为 0.4%

Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX Futures Decline, FTSE Futures Rise

Eurozone Investor Sentiment Rises to Seven-Month High

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Two-year euro zone bond yields set for weekly decline in tense trade

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The probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates in April has been lowered by the money market from 15% earlier in the day to approximately 8%. According to Jin10, this adjustment reflects changing expectations in the financial markets regarding the ECB's monetary policy decisions.

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European Central Bank April Rate Hike Probability Reduced

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Petrol price surge triggers massive EV sales peak throughout European markets

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Petrol price surge triggers massive EV sales peak throughout European markets

DHER

German stocks are up, with the DAX reaching a near 7-week high, boosted by optimism over potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The DAX rose 0.89% to 24,364.32, with notable gains from SAP (3.75%) and Delivery Hero (8.5%) after Uber increased its stake. However, Alstom's stock plummeted 30% after withdrawing its forecast. Eurozone exports fell 6.7% year-on-year in February, but the trade balance showed a surplus of EUR 11.5 billion, improving from January's deficit.

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Olaf Sleijpen, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated that market expectations for rate hikes this year are 'reasonable'. He noted that current market pricing reflects two 0.25 percentage point increases in deposit rates, with the first set for June. Sleijpen mentioned that the ECB will assess the situation in the Middle East in the weeks leading up to its April policy meeting

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ECB's Sleijpen Says Market's Rate Hike Expectations Are 'Reasonable'

German apartment construction permits rise 24% in February, data show

L6EW

The ongoing conflict weighed on global sentiment despite assurances from U.S. President Donald Trump that the war “should be ending pretty soon.”

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European stocks poised for negative open as Iran war stays in focus

The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in June due to inflation concerns linked to the conflict in Iran. A Bloomberg survey indicates eurozone inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% this year, above the previous forecast of 2%, before decreasing to 2.1% by 2026 and 2% by 2027. While ECB officials may prefer to keep rates unchanged at the end of April, some believe a rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out.

iShares MSCI Eurozone

ECB to Raise Interest Rates in June Amid Inflation Concerns, Survey Finds

Germany will lower its economic growth forecast for this year from 1% to 0.5%, impacted by the war in Iran. (Financial Times UK)

Bank of Finland Governor and ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn discusses the impact of the Iran conflict on the eurozone economy, ECB monetary policy, support for Ukraine, and European competitiveness.

ECB’s Rehn: Europe’s economy 'quite resilient' despite impact

Market expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East will restore oil and gas transportation, alleviating inflationary pressures on the global economy, leading to a general rise in global stock markets. European stocks closed with more gains than losses, with the London FTSE 100 index rising by 0.29%, the Frankfurt DAX index increasing by 0.36%, while the Paris CAC 40 index fell by 0.14%

法新社

European stocks closed higher

European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have downplayed the likelihood of a rate hike in April, emphasizing the need for more data before making a decision. Inflation has exceeded the ECB's 2% target due to rising energy costs, prompting discussions on tightening policy. Financial markets now see only a 20% chance of an April hike, with expectations for a move by July. ECB officials stress the importance of patience and data analysis before acting, as current inflation expectations remain stable.

- European Central Bank decision-makers are downplaying the likelihood of interest rate hikes this month, citing the need for more data.  
- Inflation has exceeded the ECB's 2% target due to rising energy costs, prompting discussions on tightening policy to avoid broader economic impacts.  
- While no officials entirely rule out an April hike, they indicate that significant deterioration in the economic outlook would be necessary for such a decision.

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ECB policymakers play down April rate hike chances

HEZU

On April 17, ECB Governing Council member Nagel cautioned against signaling future interest rate paths before the upcoming rate decision, emphasizing the need for flexibility. He noted insufficient information on whether rising energy costs will sustain high inflation, which could necessitate policy changes. While insiders suggest rates may remain unchanged, a hike isn't ruled out. Nagel also highlighted a slowdown in Germany's economic growth due to external factors and warned against overly optimistic investor sentiment regarding Middle East peace and energy prices.

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iShares Cur H MSCI Eurozone

ECB Official Cautions Against Premature Rate Path Signals

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated that while the oil price shock from the Iran war will impact the German economy, a recession is unlikely. He emphasized that significant changes would be needed for a recession to occur. Despite a strong start to the year, the Middle East conflict is hindering growth. The German government has revised its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 downward while increasing inflation projections.

- Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicated that the oil price shock from the Iran war will adversely affect the German economy.  
- Despite this impact, he stated that a recession is unlikely, emphasizing that significant changes would be necessary for Germany to enter a recession at this time.  
- Nagel made these comments during a panel discussion in Washington alongside Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil.

Germany unlikely to slip into recession, Bundesbank chief says

In the late European session on Thursday (April 16), the yield on Germany's two-year government bond fell by approximately 2.7 basis points to 2.517%. The 10-year bond yield dropped 1.1 basis points to 3.032%, while the 30-year bond yield declined 0.9 basis points to 3.591%. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bond yields widened by 1.579 basis points, trading at +51.233 basis points

Two-Year German Bond Yield Falls Approximately 3 Basis Points

FTAL

The German DAX 30 index initially rose 0.38% to 24,158.32 points. French indices initially gained 0.08%, Italian indices initially fell 0.15% with the banking index dropping 0.65%, and UK indices initially rose 0.33%

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Two-year euro zone bond yields set for weekly decline in tense trade

European Central Bank April Rate Hike Probability Reduced

Petrol price surge triggers massive EV sales peak throughout European markets

DAX Up Nearly 1% Around Noon; Delivery Hero Up Sharply

ECB's Sleijpen Says Market's Rate Hike Expectations Are 'Reasonable'