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Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, warns that surging Treasury yields have led to historic drawdowns in long-duration bond ETFs, with some down over 60% since March 2020. The 30-Year Treasury yield has risen from 0.8% to over 5%, negatively impacting bond prices. Despite this, fixed-income ETFs have attracted $156.19 billion in inflows this year, indicating investor positioning for a potential recovery in the bond market.

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Long-Duration Bond ETFs Face 'Pain' As 30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%, Says Charlie Bilello

SPTL

The Treasury Department's auction of $16 billion in twenty-year bonds attracted below average demand, with a high yield of 5.122% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55. This compares to last month's auction of $13 billion, which had a yield of 4.883% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.68, below the ten-auction average of 2.65.

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Twenty-Year Bond Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

The 30-year Treasury yield increased to 5.146%, marking a rise of 0.019 percentage points. This is the highest yield since July 17, 2007, and reflects a gain of 0.134 percentage points over the last two trading days. The yield has risen in five of the past six trading days and is up 0.608 percentage points from its 52-week low. Year-to-date, the yield has increased by 0.317 percentage points.

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30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.146% — Data Talk

Shares of the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ) fell below their 200-day moving average of $66.08, trading as low as $65.61, down 1.2% on the day. The 52-week range for ZROZ is between $61 and $75.06, with the last trade at $65.71.

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ZROZ Crosses Below Key Moving Average Level

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Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett claims that 30-year Treasurys are the best hedge for investors, predicting yields won't exceed 5%. He suggests the Fed may be done easing, which could lead to a steepening yield curve. Hartnett also notes that the zero-coupon Treasury ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 this year. He highlights the correlation between the Japanese yen and the Japanese index has turned positive, indicating potential global deleveraging. Despite current market weaknesses, he believes long-term support levels for Bitcoin, big tech, and gold will hold.

- A Bank of America strategist suggests that the long bond remains the best hedge against risk assets in 2026 and that the Federal Reserve may have completed its easing.  
- Michael Hartnett highlights the importance of the 5% yield threshold for the long bond and notes potential declines in government bond yields due to inflation targeting and AI disruptions.  
- He also observes a significant shift in the correlation between the Japanese yen and the stock market, predicting that a strengthening yen may lead to a global deleveraging effect in risk assets.

Pmco 25+Yr Zero Cpn Us(ZROZ.US)

Long-Duration Bond ETFs Face 'Pain' As 30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%, Says Charlie Bilello

Twenty-Year Bond Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.146% — Data Talk

ZROZ Crosses Below Key Moving Average Level

Why Bank of America says 30-year Treasurys are the best hedge for investors