We continue to believe $Tesla(TSLA.US) bottomed last week at $222 as it becomes clear to investors the TSLA brand taint is likely to be of limited duration and the decline in TSLA WS 1Q estimates (from 429K at year end to 405K now) is more likely due to shortages of refreshed Model Y inventory than Elon’s political rhetoric and DOGE activities.
Most compelling to us are 1/ weekly credit card data showing no overall decline in Tesla orders over the last 6 months (Exh 1) and 2/ YoY relative stability in Model 3 estimated 1Q deliveries, even normalizing for the M-3 Highland upgrade (Exh 2).That said, TSLA needs to be more proactive communicating that acts of vandalism to its stores and cars will be prosecuted, and use its software and sensors to warn would-be vandals to its cars that they are being video’d and will be prosecuted.
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