Gary Black Tracker
Daily quotes, trades and insights from Gary Black.
Daily quotes, trades and insights from Gary Black.
Gary Black Tracker
U.S. stocks rose pre-market Monday (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as tech stocks rebounded ahead of this week’s Samsung and SK Hynix 2Q earnings, which will test the continuing viability of the AI trade. $Tesla(TSLA.US) recovered +1.3% pre-mkt after falling -7.5% Thursday and crushing Q2 deliveries (480K vs 406K est) amid surging 2Q gas prices as a result of the Iran conflict. Brent crude fell 1% to $71/bbl as Hormuz flows recovered. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.9x P/E and a 4.6% earnings yield, in line with 10-year treasury yields. I remain cautious on TSLA given likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy in the coming year and a stretched valuation relative to forward earnings growth (6x PEG).
The avg price of a gallon of gas has risen from $2.98/gallon before the U.S.-Iran war to $3.86/gallon over the July 4th weekend after peaking at $4.56/gallon in June. The rise in gas prices is likely what caused the surge in 2Q EV deliveries YoY ( $Tesla(TSLA.US) +25%, $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) +14%, $Lucid(LCID.US) +20%) rather than recent advances in FSD/autonomy, which are still virtually unknown by most potential EV customers.
OPEC+ has a preliminary agreement for another modest oil quota increase in August, raising the prospect of more supply eventually hitting the market again if a US-Iran peace pact can stick. If ratified at a video conference on Sunday, seven major nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 188,000 barrels a day to their output target. The tiny on-paper hikes are starting to add up: it will mean they’ve added 940,000 barrels a day to quotas, equivalent to almost 1% of global demand, since the war began.Oil futures have tumbled 43% from their war-time peak of $118/barrel at the end of April to $72 a barrel today, with many forecasters predicting the re-emergence of a global glut. OPEC and its partners could soon face a choice between restraining output or fighting over market share via a potential price war. I expect $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY’26 earnings ests, which could boost TSLA price targets. That said, at a 2026 P/E of 200x+ vs +35% long-term (2027-2032) EPS growth, which equates to a 6x PEG vs 2x for $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), etc., I continue to see $Tesla(TSLA.US) as fully-priced.$Tesla(TSLA.US) (-7% today) blew away 2Q delivery ests. But investors anticipated the beat.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) (+0.7% pre-mkt) delivered 480K vehicles in 2Q, +25% YoY and far exceeding WS estimates of 406K. Excluding Models S and Y, which are being discontinued, TSLA 2Q delivs were 467K, and still +24% YoY. Days of inventory outstanding dropped from 29 DSO in 1Q to 17 DSO in 2Q.
U.S. stocks retreated pre-mkt (SPX -0.2%, NDX -0.8%) ahead of the June jobs report (+115K exp), with tech shares falling for a second day and South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix plunging 9% and 13% respectively on oversupply concerns. Brent crude fell to $70.84/bbl amid high Strait of Hormuz flows, as Trump noted progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen +23% YoY to $342 (2026 P/E 21.9x, 4.6% earnings yield vs 4.5% 10-year TYs) on AI and energy gains. TSLA 2Q deliveries are expected to beat consensus today (my est 420K vs WS est 406K) although my longer-term caution persists due to declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, rising autonomous competition, and an extended valuation.
$Meta Platforms(META.US) +10% on a report from Bloomberg outlining plans to launch a cloud-infrastructure business to sell excess AI compute capacity.
The new business would increase competition between Meta and other technology conglomerates that have been spending big on AI development, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. Meta, like many of its competitors, is spending more and more on AI development. In its 1Q earnings report in April, Meta increased its projected 2026 capital spending to a range of $125B to $145B, up $10 billion. It cited "expectations for higher component pricing" and "additional data center costs."One potential plan includes selling access to various AI models that are hosted on Meta’s existing AI infrastructure, an approach similar to AWS’s Bedrock offering, the people said. Meta would run the data centers and chips that power the models, including its own Muse Spark models, and charge developers to access them. META is also considering selling access to “raw” computing capacity, akin to other so-called neocloud businesses like CoreWeave Inc. Development of these new business lines is part of Meta Compute, an internal initiative to build and manage the company’s AI infrastructure efforts. Meta has made developing AI “superintelligence” a top priority, and has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers and other AI infrastructure. That investment has left investors anxious about Meta’s plans to earn a return on that spending, which includes major computing deals with CoreWeave, Google and Oracle Corp., among others. A cloud business offers one way to return some of that investment. AWS, Azure and Google Cloud have spent decades building platforms that rent access to computing power, storage and software over the internet — businesses that now command tens of billions of dollars per quarter in revenue.$Tesla(TSLA.US) and $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) both rising into 2Q delivs tomorrow, throwing cold water on the idea that TSLA’s rise has to do with sudden excitement about FSD or AI. With 72% of TSLA profits and 100% of RIVN profits driven by sales of EVs, the likely delivs surprises tomorrow fueled by surging oil prices over the past quarter is clearly the reason for renewed optimism in both EV makers.
2Q Delivs Est: TSLA 406K, RIVN 10.6KU.S. stocks were poised to open July cautiously (SPX -0.3%, NDX -0.6%) as investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments today at the ECB forum in Portugal for rate path clues amid rising price pressures and a strengthening economy. Brent crude -1%, 10yr yields -0.6bp to 4.46%, gold/silver were lower. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.8x P/E. $Tesla(TSLA.US) likely to beat WS 2Q delivery estimates tomorrow. We remain cautious on TSLA long-term due to declining earnings estimates, increased competition in unsupervised autonomy, and an extended valuation. $Nike(NKE.US) fell 3.4% pre-mkt after management again reduced 2027 rev guidance. The June U.S. employment report will be posted tomorrow before the market opens (+120K exp).
$Nike(NKE.US) -3.0% AH to $39.80 after posting 4Q revs and earnings that modestly beat WS consensus, excluding one time items. 2027 1Q rev and gross margin guidance will be announced on the earnings call which begins at 5pm ET.
4Q results:- EPS of $0.20 (excluding $.52 of one time tariff recovery) which beat analyst estimates of $.13.- Revs of $10.972B (-1.1% YoY) vs analyst consensus of $10.863B (-2% YoY). - At constant currency (CC), Nike revs -4.0% vs -3.9% exp- Gross margin 40.2% (excl 900bp of tariff recovery) vs 39.9% expected- Wholesale revs of $6.6B vs $6.5B est- Direct revs of $4.1B vs $4.1B est- North America in constant currency (CC) revs +3.0% YoY vs +3.1% exp- China revs -17.0% CC YoY vs -21.7% exp - Europe revs -6.0% CC YoY vs -5.0% expI expect $Tesla(TSLA.US) 2Q deliveries on Thursday morning to be ~410,000 (+7% YoY) and ahead of WS consensus of 406K after gas prices surged during the quarter. This could be TSLA’s 2nd consecutive YoY deliveries advance of >+5% after declining -9% in 2025 and -1% in 2024. We remain cautious on TSLA longer term as 2026-30 earnings ests continue to decline and as other manufacturers roll out unsupervised autonomy over the next 12 months. $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Baidu(BIDU.US) $WeRide(WRD.US) $Pony AI(PONY.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US) are now completing 1.0M paid unsupervised autonomous rides per week without safety monitors. We have no position in TSLA due to its extended valuation (2026 P/E 200x vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.0x PEG).
U.S. stocks were mixed pre-mkt, with the S&P 500 on track for its best quarter in six years amid a pending U.S.-Iran peace deal and AI momentum. Oil fell to $72.58/bbl, 10yr treasury yields dipped to 4.36%, while gold and silver rose. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) inched higher and $Tesla(TSLA.US) retreated after yesterday’s +8% gain; $Aerovironment(AVAV.US) surged +20% on strong earnings. Traders have rotated back into long-duration AI/tech and recovering consumer names as inflation eases. S&P 2026 EPS estimates rose to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.8x P/E. $Tesla(TSLA.US) Q2 deliveries are likely to beat on Thursday following the surge in gas prices during the quarter, though I remain cautious long-term due to declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, intense autonomous competition, and a seemingly stretched valuation. $Nike(NKE.US) reports after the close today, and the June U.S. employment report comes out Friday.
$Aerovironment(AVAV.US) +15% after hours after beating 4Q ests and guiding to higher than consensus FY’27 revs. FY’27 guidance for Adj EBITDA and Adj EPS were below expectations although the company has a history of guiding conservatively at the beginning of the fiscal year. AVAV had declined -42% YTD after missing 3Q revs and cutting full-year 2026 rev and EBITDA guidance.
AVAV designs and produces drones, tracking antenna, sensors, and missiles for government agencies and businesses that sell to the U.S. Department of Defense. Short interest is 12.6% of float.4Q results:- Revs $641.6M vs $558.8M est- Adj EBITDA $140.1M vs $126.1M est- Adj EPS $1.84 vs $1.41 est- Backlog $1.2B vs $1.077B estFY’27 Guidance:- Revs $2.13B - $2.23B vs $2.16B est- Adj EBITDA $305M-325M vs $346M est- Adj EPS $3.02-$3.39 vs $3.79 estConf call at 430pm ET$Tesla(TSLA.US) -15% year-to-date (vs NDX +16%) as TSLA’s rollout of unsupervised autonomous driving continues to sputter. TSLA bull Dan Ives continues to predict that TSLA is on its way to $600 with numerous catalysts. We remain skeptical with TSLA’s unsupervised autonomy fleet (no safety monitors) seemingly stalled at around 40 vehicles until efficacy improves. Many TSLA bulls erroneously count supervised autonomous vehicles (which employ safety monitors in the front seat) in their TSLA fleet numbers which is misleading.
Earlier this month, the tragic accident outside Houston where a driver who said FSD was engaged plowed into a house killing the owner inside, combined with the absence of TSLA PR unleased a torrid of negative media headlines. We continue to battle with TSLA bulls on the shortsightedness of not investing in PR even as TSLA management accused the media of lying. This is akin to a dad blaming the school if his son didn’t make the football team even though his kid didn’t bother to try out. We expect TSLA to continue to underperform (1yr TSLA +19% vs NDX +28%, 3yr TSLA +48% vs NDX +95%, 5yr TSLA +67% vs NDX +99%) until TSLA can scale up its unsupervised autonomous fleet (no safety monitors) from the current 40 vehicles to areas representing 50% of the U.S. population as targeted by Elon Musk on July 23 2025 during Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings call: (“I think we’ll probably have autonomous rides -hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year [2025]).” I expect TSLA to continue to underperform NDX until unsupervised autonomy scales. I don’t see that happening until FSD efficacy reaches 99.99% (1 intervention every 10,000 drives). Today TSLA FSD efficacy is probably 99% (1 intervention every 100 drives). TSLA bulls also seem to be latching onto the silly idea that $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with a market cap of $2 trillion will somehow use its expensive stock to buy TSLA with its $1.4 trillion market cap, despite potential massive dilution (we est ~25% dilution at existing market caps and multiples) and obvious governance questions.In 2Q we expect TSLA and other EV makers to benefit from stubbornly high gas prices which should boost EV deliveries. On Friday, TSLA IR posted its 2Q consensus delivery estimates which show a 2Q delivery gain of +6% YoY and FY 26 delivery gain of +1% YoY, which suggests TSLA deliveries could avoid a third consecutive year of decline. While bulls argue that TSLA is not just a car company, EVs still make up 72% of TSLA gross profits and it’s difficult to expect investors to accord a 200x P/E to a stock with earnings that are shrinking and its unsupervised autonomy rollout stalled.Good article from DowJones summarizing $Tesla(TSLA.US), Waymo, $Uber Tech(UBER.US) efforts to scale unsupervised autonomy.
Tesla and Waymo duel in the robotaxi race - but the company spending the most builds no cars at allBy Jurica Dujmovic 06/27/2026 14:20pm$Uber is quietly writing $500 million checks to lock in robotaxis as Waymo threatens to leave it behind Tesla's autonomous robotaxis use the company's Model Y vehicles. The promised Cybercab is still in development. Tesla investors are paying a premium for a robotaxi fleet of just 20 cars If you own Tesla stock, much of what you are paying for above the value of a carmaker is a bet on autonomy and artificial intelligence that has barely reached the income statement: full self-driving software, the Optimus robot and a robotaxi network. The robotaxi is the nearest-term and most testable piece of that bet, and this spring it amounted to about 20 driverless Tesla Model Y vehicles in Austin, Dallas and Houston. Value the car business the way investors price any other automaker, and it accounts for only a fraction of the stock; the rest is the market's bid on that future, a premium no ordinary carmaker could carry. What is new is that the bet is finally testable against operating data rather than projections. This is not only a Tesla (TSLA) story. Autonomous driving has been separating investors from their money for years - from the self-driving Google cars promised to the public by 2017 to the roughly $10 billion that General Motors (GM) poured into Cruise before shutting it down. What is different this time is that the money has moved from research budgets to balance sheets, with contracts, milestones and deployment targets attached, across Tesla, Uber Technologies (UBER) and Alphabet (GOOGL) alike. Each company's progress, or lack of it, is now something investors can finally mark to market. Tesla's bet is real, but still small Tesla's robotaxi bet is a vertical one, with a single company owning the vehicle, the software and the network. The hardware is no longer theoretical: CEO Elon Musk said Cybercab production had begun at Giga Texas in April, though he warned that output would follow a "stretched out S-curve" - his term for a manufacturing ramp that stays slow far longer than usual before turning sharply higher, with little volume expected until late in the year. Musk has cautioned that material Cybercab revenue is unlikely before 2027. Tesla's shareholder update in late 2025 listed Phoenix, Las Vegas and three Florida cities - Miami, Orlando and Tampa - as part of its planned first-half 2026 Robotaxi coverage. But with that window nearing its end, those five markets have still not moved into service. In its 1Q update, Tesla no longer attached the first-half timing to those cities and instead described them as "Preparations Underway," while spring reporting pointed to a rollout that was slipping rather than accelerating. The spread between Waymo's half-million weekly rides and Tesla's roughly 20 active unsupervised robotaxi vehicles is, in effect, what the market is being asked to absorb every time it assigns Tesla a robotaxi premium. Uber in the fast lane If Tesla is the bet on owning everything, Uber is the bet on owning almost nothing and renting demand to whoever builds the cars. If Tesla is the bet on owning everything, Uber is the bet on owning almost nothing and renting demand to whoever builds the cars. That model is getting more expensive to defend. On June 3, Reuters reported that Uber has committed close to $500 million to self-driving software startup Nuro, far more than previously disclosed. The publicly known piece was Uber's participation in a $203 million funding round that valued Nuro at $6 billion. On top of that, Uber quietly made a second, larger investment and agreed to release further capital as Nuro cleared defined technical and commercial benchmarks. e listed names it is the most direct bet on robotaxi-sensor demand.$Tesla(TSLA.US) $Uber Tech(UBER.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)U.S. stocks retreated Friday (SPX -0.5%, NDX -1.2%) amid semiconductor selloffs and OpenAI delay concerns, while Korean chipmakers plunged. Brent crude fell by an additional 3.4% to $72.71, as the Strait of Hormuz reopened post-U.S.-Iran peace progress, flooding markets with supply and easing inflation fears. We believe equities will reclaim their highs with oil prices and long-term treasury yields falling and 2Q earnings starting in a few weeks. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.5x P/E and 4.6% earnings yield, offering a +28bp premium to 10yr TYs. We remain cautious on TSLA due to declining forward earnings ests, intense autonomy competition, and an extended valuation (2026 P/E 200x vs +35% long-term earnings growth)
U.S. stocks surged pre-market with SPX +0.7% and NDX +2.1%, driven by Micron’s ($Micron Tech(MU.US)) blowout Q3 earnings and strong Q4 guidance, sparking gains across all semiconductor stocks. Brent crude fell to $72/bbl, erasing all wartime gains as Hormuz reopened amid a U.S.-Iran peace deal and surging supplies. Traders rotated back into AI/tech and consumer discretionary names as inflation fears subsided while S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates rose to $342 (+23% YoY), which equates to a 2026 S&P 500 P/E of 21.9x, a forward earnings yield of 4.6%, and +20bp premium to 10yrTYs. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining earnings estimates, likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a seemingly extended valuation.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls’ arguments that Elon is holding back TSLA’s robotaxi scale-up so $SpaceX(SPCX.US) can buy $Tesla(TSLA.US) at a relatively cheap valuation seems absurd, given the massive dilution that would result from a stock-for-stock transaction of SPCX at 160x 2026 EV/EBITDA vs TSLA at 90x 2026 EV/EBITDA, let alone the governance issues associated with such a strategy. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining earnings estimates, the coming commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a seemingly extended valuation.
The question for $Micron Tech(MU.US) coming into last night’s earnings was not how big the memory-chip boom is, but how long it can last. The correct answer appears to be: Longer than anyone originally thought.
Perhaps the most important number from last night’s report was 16 -- the number of long-term supply deals Micron has locked in, guaranteeing approximately $100 billion in revenue. That eases fears that the current sky-high prices and margins are unsustainable. Micron said that once all the supply deals are executed, agreements with either fixed prices or price ceilings close to current levels are expected to represent around 40% of its revenue. Meanwhile, the contracts also come with price floors which the company says will enable gross margins "well above" its peak in any past cycle.MU skeptics have long worried that the current memory chip shortage was causing memory chip prices to remain artificially elevated. Last night’s earnings commentary and conference call showed management’s conviction that this AI cycle is uniquely sustainable to keep memory chip prices high through at least 2030. If that’s true, at 9x 2027 Adj EPS of $135, $Micron Tech(MU.US) at its pre-mkt indication of $1,220 still looks cheap. Source: Bloomberg$Tesla(TSLA.US) continues to underperform NDX despite continued drop in 10yr treasury yields:
- Over 1 year, TSLA +10% vs NDX +32%- Over 3 years, TSLA +43% vs NDX +92%- Over 5 years, TSLA +68% vs NDX +104%- 10yrTY dropped another 10bp today to 4.39% as Brent crude reached its lowest level ($73/bbl) since end of February.$Micron Tech(MU.US) (+14% AH) blew away 3Q estimates and guided significantly higher for 4Q revs and gross margin vs WS ests. Other memory chip manufacturers’ stocks rose in sympathy.
3Q Results:- Adj EPS of $25.11. vs. $20.49 est.- Rev of $41.5 billion vs $35.7 billion est - Gross margin 84.9% vs 81.9% est4Q Guidance:- Adj EPS of $30-$32 vs $25.31 est- Rev of $49-$51B vs $43.2B est - Gross margin of 86% vs 83.6%Micron and its rivals have struggled to satisfy memory-chip demand, creating shortages in areas like computers, phones and cars. Though the company is expanding its manufacturing capacity, prices are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future. Micron and its Korean competitor in the memory space — Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. — have become major beneficiaries of the AI boom. A spending spree by data center operators has stoked the appetite for both conventional memory and a newer variety called high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, that works with AI systems.As I argued last week when $SpaceX(SPCX.US) cruised past $200, investors shouldn’t be paying 150x 2026 EV/EBITDA for a business expected to show long-term rev growth of 35-40% per year (4x PEG). $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) trades at 19x CY 2026 EV/EBITDA and is expected to post long-term rev growth of 10-15% per year (~1.5x PEG). The math doesn’t math.
With $SpaceX(SPCX.US) now at $166 (-10% today) and -25% from last week’s 225 peak, it’s hilarious listening to bullish analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg justify their aggressive price targets (WS consensus $235) posted last week. SPCX is uniquely positioned with great ambition but it’s still hard to justify analytically a valuation of 175x FY’2026 EV/Ebitda (and 62x EV/Rev) vs +35-40% exp long-term rev growth.
The Fed voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.5%-3.75% but were split over whether they expect to raise rates this year. The dot plot indicated 9 of 18 officials foresee at least one quarter-point hike this year, while 8 others (17 of 18 total) expected no move or a cut. We presume the missing dot belongs to new chair Kevin Warsh who may be trying to de-emphasize forward guidance by Fed officials.
Three observations:1/ Median forecast rate by year-end 3.75% vs 3.4% in March.2/ The statement ends hawkishly with its emphasis on price stability rather than its dual mandate of focusing on both price stability and maximum employment.3/ The Fed statement was materially shorter, with a word count of 130 words vs 341 words in April.I have resisted commenting on $SpaceX(SPCX.US) as it acts more like a meme stock than one driven by fundamentals (revs, cash flows, valuation). That may be ending.
As of yesterday, investors who wanted to place bearish bets on $SpaceX(SPCX.US) were finally able to buy puts and the stock is -4% today after rising +50% in the past three days from its $135 IPO price (6/12 +19.2%, 6/15 +19.6%, 6/16 +4.8%). While many SPCX bulls screamed “I told you so” when the stock was soaring, the reality was there were few outlets for selling — those who bought at the IPO price were locked up from selling, there was no stock available to short, and no puts traded until yesterday. Let’s revisit how $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is doing once lockups come off in August and investors can more easily short.Today is Fed Day and Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as new Fed Chair. The expected end of fighting and re-opening of Hormuz in the Middle East has given Kevin Warsh lower energy prices as a wedge to ask FOMC members to adopt a wait-and-see-stance on monetary policy rather than to follow other central banks (ECB, BOJ) in raising short term rates. Money markets continue to expect at least one Fed rate hike (87% chance) by year-end as inflation remains elevated. The forward dot plot of FOMC members could be the most important signal today of Fed thinking rather than the actual policy statement.
Separately May retail sales were above expectations (+0.9% MoM vs +0.6%E MoM) despite higher energy prices signaling continuing strong spending by consumers.