So how bad will the Bear Market be?

Today 30 years of globalization has ended. I think there will be consequences - high inflation and job loses leading to a relatively long Bear market.

Historical Bear Market Percentages:

Average Decline: The average bear market sees a decline of around 35%. However, this can range from just over 20% to nearly 90%.

Smallest Decline: Some bear markets have had relatively small percentage declines, such as the one in July 1990 which saw a drop of approximately 19.9%.

Largest Decline: The most severe bear market on record was during the Great Depression, where the S&P 500 plummeted by approximately 83% between 1929 and 1932. Other significant declines include the bear markets of 1973-1974 (-48.2%) and 2007-2009 (-56.8%).

Historical Bear Market Durations:

Average Duration: The average bear market lasts about 15 months. However, durations have ranged from a few weeks to several years.

Shortest Bear Market: The shortest bear market occurred in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, lasting only 33 days.

Longest Bear Market: The longest bear market coincided with the Great Depression, spanning from 1929 to 1932, a period of almost 3 years. Other lengthy bear markets include the one from 2000-2002 (31 months) and 1973-1974 (21 months).

The process of negotiating with dozens and dozens of countries simply won’t happen fast. Maybe it’s time to get out for a extended period of time???

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