Will Republicans Let the Economy Crash?Bloomberg o

Will Republicans Let the Economy Crash?

Bloomberg opinion - Nia-Malika Henderson

Republicans could face a bloodbath in next November’s mid-term elections as the economy sinks into recession, a result of the devastating tariffs being unleashed globally.

When President Trump was inaugurated, the US economy was the envy of the world, having managed an unmatched post-Covid comeback. Now, the country appears to be headed for a recession, pulling down the global economy and Trump’s political fortunes with it.

Americans, by and large, no longer trust Trump on the economy, viewing him as insufficiently focused on lowering prices and his global tariff plan as certain to raise everyday costs. His recent erratic moves will erode that trust even more. In that sense, Trump himself is the biggest threat to his own party’s success.

All the while, Trump, exists in a politically perilous state of optimistic oblivion.

“The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom,” he said Thursday in response to the stock market plunge he caused, which erased $5 trillion over two days.

Trump has defiantly vowed that his “policies will never change,” yet the current course seems economically and politically unsustainable, leaving much uncertainty about what lies ahead in the coming weeks, as Trump seeks to bend international trade to his will and push through his legislative agenda in Washington.

A number of factors could prove crucial.

Among them, pushback from Republicans, who have criticized Trump more in the last few days than they have since he won in November. Their constituents, groups like farmers and laid off autoworkers, will likely be short on patience, fueling some senators to oppose Trump’s tariffs. Already, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley is spearheading an effort to reassert Congressional control over tariffs. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has rarely said anything negative about Trump in years, warned tariffs pose “enormous risks” to the economy and could lead to a “bloodbath” for Republicans in the midterms. A handful of GOP Senators, possibly Cruz, could join Grassley’s efforts — though the measure will likely die in the House, which voted last month to neuter itself on the tariff fight.

Another factor is the new energy and focus among Democrats. After months of torpor, the party, firmly in the minority in Washington, won a resounding victory in a state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, where Elon Musk was a big factor. New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, who staged a 25-hour history-making speech, also gave Democrats reason to feel hopeful that they might be able to rally anti-Trump sentiment to their benefit. Protests across the country on Saturday showcased liberal voters’ opposition to Trump’s agenda. Later this year, the Governor’s race in Virginia will be another tell, with moderate Democrat Abigail Spanberger clearing the field and the GOP headed for a messy primary fight.

Trump’s power rests on his bond with the MAGA faithful, who see in him a path to retribution and redemption.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” Trump said. “But it is not going to happen anymore.” According to a a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 25% of Republicans think Trump’s moves to shake up the economy are too erratic. The same poll, taken before the tariffs were announced, said that 30% of Republicans believe that increasing tariffs on vehicles will have a negative impact. Those numbers will likely increase if there is no tariff pullback and prices noticeably rise.