$Tesla(TSLA.US) stock price after tomorrow’s earnings depends far more on what mgmt says about the more affordable vehicle, timing of the Austin unsupervised autonomous test market, Elon’s future involvement with DOGE, and guidance on FY’25 delivery growth, which is a measure of brand taint, than actual results.
My ests: 1Q Adj EPS $.37 (WS est $.44)1Q Auto gross margin ex-reg credits 12.6% (WS est 12.3%)1Q Revs $20.0B (WS est $21.4B)FY’25 Delivs 1,700K -5% YoY (WS est 1,809K +1.1% YoY).FY’25 Adj EPS $2.60 (WS est $2.64)We remind investors that WS consensus shown by Bloomberg could be stale, as analysts typically don’t update estimates after the quarter is over until the actual earnings print. In this situation, the TSLA IR-compiled survey analysts is likely more accurate, which shows 1Q Adj EPS of $.38 (vs Bloomberg WS consensus $.44), FY’25 Delivs of 1,731K (-3% YoY and WS consensus 1,809K), and FY’25 Adj EPS of $2.29 (well below WS consensus $2.64).
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