For months, my #1 $Tesla(TSLA.US) catalyst pinned to my profile has been: “Trump streamlines federal process allowing TSLA to secure general unsupervised autonomy license nationally.” That speculation is playing out today, fueled by $Dominion Energy(D.US).T. Secretary Sean Duffy’s announcement Thursday that DOT planned to streamline the legislative approval process for securing national autonomous deployment licenses so that U.S. autonomous manufacturers didn’t have to apply state by state to launch fully autonomous vehicles. According to Duffy: “As part of DOT's innovation agenda, our new framework will slash red tape and move us closer to a single national standard that spurs innovation and prioritizes safety."
At the end of June, TSLA plans to launch a trial Robotaxi network in Austin TX featuring 10-20 Model Y vehicles equipped with full-self driving hardware and FSD. Assuming all goes well in Austin, TSLA would move to expand the test to other US markets by year-end. Our TSLA 2026-2030 estimates — which remain well above WS ests (our 2028 TSLA adj eps est $6.80 vs WS $5.40) — assume a 15% FSD take rate at the current $8,000 FSD sale and $99/month rental prices.
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