$Tesla(TSLA.US) investors need to remember that EV fundamentals still drive TSLA’s stock price (-2.4% today vs NDX -0.7%). April Europe sales have so far been terrible and the Model Y changeover can no longer be used as an excuse. With nearly all European countries now reporting April sales, @troyteslike is predicting that April 2025 Europe sales will be -47% YoY vs April 2024. We predict that FY’25 TSLA delivs will be -6% YoY vs FY’24, vs FY’25 WS est decline of -3% YoY.
The clear message is that FY’25-FY’26 consensus non-GAAP EPS ests are likely to come down further (FY’25 $2.09 today, -21% vs pre-1Q earnings release; FY’26 $3.03 today, -17% vs pre-1Q earnings release), which could further pressure TSLA’s stock. Two consecutive years of declining deliveries aren’t consistent with a stock trading at 134x FY’25 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.09, or 92x FY’26 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.03. TSLA’s avg 1-year forward P/E over the past three years is 76x.
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