$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) (-1.5% AH) posted better than expected 1Q results, and importantly showed a second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit. Offsetting that RIVN reduced its FY’25 delivery outlook to 40K-46K, down from its prior forecast of 46K-51K, blaming uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariff policy. WS FY’25 est was 50.2K. Rivian delivered 51,579 vehicles in 2024.
FY’25: - Still sees Adj Ebitda loss -$1.7B to -$1.9B, WS estimate -$1.92 billion- Now sees CapExp $1.8B to $1.9B, saw $1.6B to $1.7B, WS estimate $1.64B - Still sees modest positive gross profit for FY’25, includes $300M ZEV credits1Q RESULTS:- Rev $1.24B vs $981M est - Adj Ebitda -$329M loss, vs -$551M est - R&D exp $381M vs $414M est - SG&A exp $480M vs $460M est- Free cash flow -$526M vs WS est -$821MCOMMENTARY AND CONTEXT- 1Q gross profit of $206 million, its second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit, included $157M sales of ZEV credits - Second consecutive gross profit quarter unlocked an $1B investment from Volkswagen, expected by June 30, 2025- Rivian has continued to make good progress on the development of R2 $45K SUV which will significantly expand Rivian TAM; R2 production remains on track for 2026/1H- Estimates tariffs will add $3K COGS per vehicle. Has 100 percent of US vehicle manufacturing from the US or USMCA-qualified areasWe could see RIVN move higher next few weeks despite production cutThe copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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