Review this week and next week's views

This week's market volatility ultimately revolved around Trump's statements. On Monday, the market's first reaction to his threat of imposing tariffs on Europe was to sell off, with risk assets collectively under pressure and indices plunging at the open. But soon after, he backtracked, announcing that a framework had been agreed with NATO on the Greenland issue and tariffs would be temporarily shelved. This immediately reversed market sentiment, with funds quickly flowing back and indices rebounding.

This process is actually familiar to everyone—it's essentially the repeated pricing of policy uncertainty within a short timeframe. Each time, it's panic first, then correction. While this creates trading opportunities, the biggest problem remains: you never know when he'll change his tune.

From a technical perspective, the broader market is now oscillating around a critical level, with support and resistance on both sides but lacking sustainability. Short-term technical patterns aren't clean, so relying solely on technicals makes it difficult to confidently predict next week's direction. Much will depend on how events unfold.

Next week is crucial for three main reasons.

First, earnings reports. Mid-next week, several heavyweight tech companies will release earnings. Their impact on indices goes without saying—any deviation in earnings or guidance will trigger immediate market reactions. At the same time, major players in industrial, financial, and consumer sectors will also report. Their performance will better reflect whether the US economy is slowing down.

The second key event is January 27th. The SEC and CFTC will hold a high-level coordination meeting to discuss regulatory jurisdiction in the crypto era. Why does this matter? Because these two agencies have been competing for oversight. If boundaries are clarified this time, it would be a material positive for the crypto industry and institutional capital inflows, affecting both sentiment and structure.

Third, the Fed. While markets largely expect no rate cut this time, the real focus isn't on action but on the statement and press conference. Any slight change in wording could spark a market move, especially in this sentiment-sensitive environment.

Overall, I still see slightly higher odds of an upward move, but the path may not be smooth. Monday and Tuesday could see more volatility. The real directional signal will likely only emerge mid-week as these events play out.