旧识先生

Recently, many people are still immersed in the dividends of the photovoltaic (PV) sector, thinking it's a safe haven. But to be honest, money is now flowing like a tide into the deep waters of AI. Why do I say that? The logic is actually very simple, just two points: First, PV is already an "open hand" (well-known play), and its ceiling is visible. In the past, people chased PV because it was the "water seller" for AI infrastructure, a necessity. But now, the logic of the PV sector has shifted from "explosive growth" to "stable existing volume," and it's even getting a bit competitive. What does market capital value most? Growth potential. PV is the foundation, but AI is the main structure that will grow into a skyscraper...

Last week's review: Against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict, the market experienced significant intraday volatility. Earlier hawkish rhetoric once triggered a drop of about 2% in the three major indices, with the fear index rising rapidly. However, driven by bargain hunting and technical recovery, the indices bottomed out and rebounded, currently trading back near the 20-day moving average. This level itself carries strong significance for divergence. Bulls believe the market has ended the adjustment that lasted for weeks and entered a phased rebound cycle. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 and semiconductor indices have also regained key moving averages, indicating that panic selling may have bottomed out for now. But on the other hand...

Tesla Misses Again: Collapse of Faith or the Darkest Hour Before Dawn?

"Tesla is down again, where is the bottom this time?"

With the release of Q1 2026 delivery figures, this question is once again being hotly debated in the market. Tesla (TSLA) delivered 358,000 vehicles, below the expected 370,000, and its stock price fell 5% in response. Year-to-date, the decline is close to 17%. The former "faith harvester" is now clearly under pressure.

The core of the issue is that Tesla is experiencing the growing pains of an "identity shift."

On one hand, the car manufacturing business has moved from a high-growth phase to maturity. The Model 3/Y are in the later stages of their product cycles. While the market is full of anticipation for the Cybercab, Optimus, and the new Roadster, current sales still rely on older models. Against the backdrop of slowing global EV demand and subsidy reductions, the logic of supporting a high valuation through car sales alone is weakening.

On the other hand, the AI and robotics businesses remain in the "storytelling" phase. Musk is pushing FSD and Optimus hard, trying to transform Tesla into an AI company, but the reality is: gross margins are still dragged down by the vehicle business, and the profits from AI have yet to truly materialize. Capital markets can accept a vision, but they value the timeline for its realization more.

So, how to judge the bottom? The key is not the price, but the signals.

First, watch whether gross margins stabilize.

Tesla once led its peers with high gross margins, but the ongoing price war continues to erode profit margins. If vehicle-level gross margins can bottom out and rebound in Q2 or Q3 2026, or if FSD subscriptions significantly boost overall profitability, the fundamentals will once again support the stock price.

Second, watch the pace of FSD and Robotaxi deployment.

2026 is seen as the "year of delivery." The mass production of the Cybercab and the commercialization of autonomous driving are key valuation pivots. Further delays will continue to erode market confidence.

Third, watch changes in the competitive landscape.

Current market competition far exceeds that of three years ago. With attacks from both new entrants and traditional automakers, Tesla must prove it still possesses overwhelming cost and efficiency advantages after its first-mover advantage has diminished.

Based on the above logic, my judgment is:

Tesla's "physical bottom" depends on the inflection point in profits, while its "psychological bottom" depends on Musk delivering on the AI narrative.

For long-term investors, the focus should not be on how much the stock price has fallen, but on whether Tesla's core assets—data, algorithms, and computing power—continue to appreciate. If it ultimately remains just an efficient manufacturer, then the valuation re-rating is not over yet.

Every major surge is often preceded by a period of de-foaming. Tesla in 2026 is undergoing a crucial test.

The bottom is not a price, but a turning point in confidence. Until then, patience is more important than trying to catch the bottom.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Since 2026, the storage sector has experienced a rapid shift from "extreme euphoria" to "rational reassessment." Among them, SanDisk (SNDK) is undoubtedly the core leader of this market cycle. After being spun off from Western Digital, the company's independent operational efficiency has significantly improved. Coupled with the supply contraction driven by industry-wide voluntary production cuts over the past two years, NAND Flash prices have continued to rise, creating a double boost for both performance and valuation. The stock price's climb from below $50 to around $700 essentially reflects the market's concentrated pricing of its "cyclical peak-like profits"...

When many people look at the US-Iran conflict, they often only see a superficial logic: war breaks out, oil prices rise. However, if one only views the issue from this angle, it may underestimate the strategic game behind it. In reality, although the United States and Israel have their own objectives in this conflict, their ultimate directions are aligned. Israel's goal is very clear: to obtain a more stable security environment, weaken or even end the regimes that are hostile to it, while simultaneously destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities and its support for armed forces in the Middle East. The United States' starting point is more complex. The US also hopes to change Iran's current regime, but at the same time, it is well aware that Iran is a country of immense size...

Folks, today's U.S. stock market was indeed a bit nerve-wracking. The three major indices all fell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping to painful levels. If the declines in the previous two years were due to interest rate hikes, the logic behind this wave is far more complex. Let's briefly discuss why everyone is running today. 1. The Trigger: The "Black Gold" Fire Ignited in the Middle East 🛢 First, the obvious negative factor is the energy crisis triggered by the situation in Iran. Oil prices once broke through the $100 mark today. For the market, this is a vicious cycle: rising oil prices → rising inflation expectations → the Fed's rate cut dream shattered...

March 11 US Stock Market Recap

Today's core keyword for the market is only one: repeated uncertainty.

Due to signals of easing released in the previous trading session, market sentiment briefly warmed up, but then the situation became volatile again. Tensions in the Middle East have not truly cooled down, and rumors about maritime route security have once again raised concerns about energy supply. What the market is truly worried about is not a single negative factor, but whether risks will continue to escalate, which directly pushes up risk premiums.

Before the market opened, the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed a possible large-scale release of strategic petroleum reserves, temporarily easing inflation expectations and driving the indices to open higher. However, capital soon realized that reserve releases can only alleviate short-term supply pressure and are difficult to hedge against long-term supply-demand imbalances. If the situation remains volatile, energy prices may still maintain high volatility. Therefore, the indices retreated after the initial surge, essentially reflecting a reassessment of the persistence of risks.

In terms of inflation, the February CPI was up 2.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and the data itself is relatively neutral. However, this data reflects the price structure before the recent energy volatility. Brent crude oil has experienced sharp fluctuations recently, briefly touching $120 during the session before falling back to around $90. The market is beginning to worry whether inflation will be affected by energy and resurge in the coming months, creating "secondary inflation" pressure.

For tech stocks, the issue is not the current CPI, but whether the interest rate path will change as a result. If energy prices push up inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer period, and the pace of easing may also be delayed. With the interest rate center not yet clear, the room for valuation expansion in growth stocks is limited.

Interest rate expectations are being repriced. As energy disruptions intensify, market bets on rate cuts within the year have shrunk, and the current preference leans towards only one possible rate cut. Some even mention the combined risk of "slowing growth + high inflation." In this context of limited policy space, risk assets naturally face pressure. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.17%, suppressing both the tech and financial sectors.

There are still bright spots at the individual stock level. Oracle's earnings exceeded expectations, with strong demand for AI infrastructure, and its stock surged over 10% during the session. This indicates that capital has not completely withdrawn from risk assets. As long as earnings certainty is high enough, the market is still willing to grant a premium, and the logic of AI-related capital expenditure remains attractive.

However, the energy sector saw profit-taking after the oil price retreated, and financial stocks were also affected by both rising yields and economic uncertainty. Overall, the market has not formed a unified main theme, but risk appetite has become more cautious.

In summary, today's surge and retreat was not accidental but reflects the market reassessing "whether the oil price shock will change the inflation and interest rate path." A short-term transmission chain has formed: rising oil prices → heating inflation expectations → delayed rate cuts → index pressure. As long as this logic remains unbroken, the room for a sustained rebound at the index level is limited.

Currently, it seems more like a game stage driven by variables rather than a trend market. Whether oil prices stabilize will become a key observation point for the market going forward.

$Oracle(ORCL.US)

The most dramatic storyline in the pharmaceutical circle recently is Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) moving from "facing off in court" to "cooperating to sell drugs." What happened before is known to all: HIMS seized the GLP-1 shortage window, selling a compound version, causing its stock price to surge; then regulatory tightening and patent pressure emerged, leading to a stock price crash; the market began to doubt whether its growth logic was sustainable. The real turning point was the announcement of cooperation between the two parties. The essence of this step is not a simple positive development but a shift in business model. HIMS no longer relies on the "shortage dividend"...

Amazon has entered a new cycle of high investment and high volatility in 2026. After experiencing a sharp shock at the beginning of the year, its stock price is currently at a critical juncture where fundamental recovery intertwines with macroeconomic uncertainty. 1. Why did it plummet recently? From early February to early March, Amazon's stock price once fell by more than 15%. The market panic mainly stemmed from: Capital expenditure like a money-guzzling monster: Amazon announced a capital expenditure (Capex) budget of up to $200 billion for 2026. This astronomical figure made investors accustomed to "cash flow is king" uneasy...

The overall market trend this week was largely consistent with previous judgments. The index closed lower on a weekly basis, but the decline was limited, with the lowest point approaching the 6800 region, and no trend-breaking pattern has formed yet. This indicates that the market is not experiencing a panic crash, but rather is in a stage of high-level volatility and risk repricing. The starting point of the decline came from the widening divergence in expectations for the AI sector. The market began to question the ability of high-valuation tech stocks to deliver profits, risk appetite declined, and the semiconductor sector led the correction. Although NVIDIA's earnings expectations were strong, funds took profits early, dragging down the entire chip sector. The decline in tech heavyweights weighed on the index...

Weekly Review: Tariffs and Crypto

This week, the market was originally in an adjustment phase, but a major news event broke over the weekend—the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6:3 that the Trump administration's large-scale imposition of reciprocal tariffs under emergency economic powers lacked authorization and must be approved by Congress. This ruling weakens the existing tariff framework, with market estimates suggesting the effective tariff rate could drop from around 13% to about 6%.

Following the announcement, the stock market quickly rallied and closed higher after some volatility. However, it didn't surge all the way up because the market's concern isn't just the rejection of old tariffs, but whether a more aggressive alternative will be introduced. Uncertainty remains, so capital is naturally cautious.

In terms of sectors, companies highly reliant on global supply chains benefit the most. Retail giants like Walmart and Amazon see relief from import cost pressures, with profit improvements expected. The technology and hardware sectors also benefit, especially companies with complex supply chains and high tariff sensitivity, such as Apple and chipmakers. European and Japanese automakers, like Toyota, also benefit from lower cost expectations.

Industries previously protected by tariffs, such as steel and aluminum, face relative pressure and need to be wary of cheap imports returning. The financial sector is concerned that potential tariff refunds could widen the fiscal deficit and push up U.S. Treasury yields, causing turbulence for bank stocks.

In the short term, tech heavyweights remain the core directional force. Some leading stocks haven't stabilized above their 20-day moving average, and the overall index is still in a technical pressure zone. Two key variables in the latter half of the week are worth watching:

First is NVIDIA's earnings report, which directly impacts AI and chip sentiment;

Second is Trump's State of the Union address to Congress, which may touch on tariff alternatives, national security provisions, and tax refund stances, all of which could intensify sector divergence.

Roughly three scenarios are possible going forward:

If the speech is moderate and earnings are strong, the index may see a short-term surge;

If the policy stance is hawkish but not yet implemented, a period of consolidation is likely;

If a hawkish policy stance coincides with disappointing earnings, another decline is possible.

Overall, until the alternative policy is clarified, the sustainability of the rally is questionable. There's a short-term rebound, but the medium-term outlook leans towards consolidation, with the trend still awaiting confirmation.

On the crypto front, White House negotiations regarding stablecoin yields are still progressing. While no final agreement has been reached, constructive progress has been made. If a draft is formed by the end of February and legislation is advanced before April, it would constitute a phased positive. However, before it actually enters Senate voting, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound.

Currently, there's significant institutional cost pressure in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, and selling pressure from unwinding positions may emerge when approaching it. Short-term trading will likely focus on range-bound games, with exchange-related stocks potentially showing more elasticity than the coin price itself.

Summary: The market's main themes still revolve around the path for tariff alternatives and stablecoin legislative progress.

This is a stage of variable games, not a trend confirmation stage. Rhythm is more important than direction. 📊

$Circle(CRCL.US)

$Coinbase(COIN.US)

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)

Let's talk about INTC

Recently, a friend asked about INTC, so I'll take this opportunity to share my views.

INTC is actually a stock you can buy, it's just that recently, capital hasn't been paying much attention to it, so the price hasn't moved much. Looking at its recent trend, the stock price has basically been moving sideways within a small range, and trading volume has been relatively thin. This indicates that the money in the market is very cautious right now; nobody is in a hurry to place large positions.

Combined with the recent overall market trend, the current market is still mainly in a state of divergence. Hot sectors that are truly reaping growth dividends, like AI, large language models, and the semiconductor supply chain, are more likely to attract capital. As for established mainstay stocks like INTC, although the fundamentals aren't bad, they lack specific short-term catalysts, so large capital is allocating to them more conservatively.

Furthermore, the overall market has recently been in a state of volatile adjustment, with capital more inclined to seek out targets with clearer growth prospects and more eye-catching short-term performance. This also leaves stocks like INTC, which currently lack highlights, in a neglected state. So, you see the stock price just moving back and forth in a narrow range, with trading volume not expanding much.

If you're positioning from a long-term value investment perspective, there's no problem, especially suitable for patient holding, waiting for fundamental improvements or an industry cycle recovery. But if you expect substantial returns in the short term, the difficulty will indeed be greater, requiring time to trade for space.

$Intel(INTC.US)

Last week, I already reminded everyone that the probability of this round continuing to surge higher is very low. Looking at this week's trend, the S&P 500 has continued to decline, with the core drag coming from the Nasdaq. The reason it's extremely difficult to reach new highs again in the short term is that unless there is a major stimulus beyond expectations, the market lacks new upward momentum. Current macro data such as employment and CPI have not deteriorated significantly, so the problem is not at the macro level, but rather that the internal structure of the tech sector is changing. In January this year, Anthropic launched agent plugins, beginning to penetrate professional fields such as law, sales, and finance...

After two consecutive trading days of emotional recovery, the U.S. stock market began to reveal its true operating state today. On the surface, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly refreshed its high with the support of traditional value stocks, the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index, which better reflect market risk appetite and growth momentum, were clearly under pressure in key resistance areas, with the upward momentum tending to stagnate. This divergence is not accidental but repeatedly reminds the market of a fact: the gains of the past two days are closer to a technical rebound after being oversold, rather than the starting point of a new trend. As the rebound momentum gradually weakens...

This week, the U.S. stock market can be said to have undergone a significant washout, falling nearly 300 points for three consecutive days. What truly dragged the market down was the Nasdaq. The S&P and Russell have already climbed back above their 20-day moving averages and are even hitting new highs, but the Nasdaq is clearly still underwater. This indicates that this sell-off wasn't targeting the broader market, but rather tech stocks, high valuations, and the most liquid assets. This wave of decline wasn't a loss of emotional control; it's more like the market is repricing one thing: what the new Fed Chair Walsh truly means. After Trump formally nominated him, Wall Street actually started taking it seriously...

[Strategy Sharing] Left-side ambush + Long-term value regression 📊

Today, I organized my positions and summarized my thoughts to share with everyone. My approach is relatively simple: short-term technical rebounds and long-term undervalued leaders. This way, I can make money in the short term and endure in the long term.

1. Short-term trading—Look for rebounds at lows ⚡️

Recently, I’ve been watching IONQ, RGTI, ALAB, EOSE, ACRD, and NKLR—all high-volatility tech/energy stocks. The core logic is buying at support levels:

IONQ & RGTI (Quantum Computing): The stock price retested key support. Quantum computing commercialization is accelerating in 2026, and this stabilization usually signals short exhaustion, with longs potentially re-entering.

ALAB & EOSE (AI Infrastructure/Energy Storage): The stock price retested previous highs or long-term moving average support, making a rebound opportunity obvious.

My strategy involves two layers of positions: the first layer captures quick rebounds, and the second reserves stop-loss space for a high risk-reward ratio. Short-term rebound potential usually covers adjustment losses, so the risk is manageable.

2. Long-term DCA—"Bargain hunting" for quality assets 🏦

Long-term focus: COIN, HOOD, SOFI, ONDS, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), $Unitedhealth(UNH.US), $Tesla(TSLA.US)

These are all industry leaders. Their current low prices are mostly due to market sentiment or macro factors, not fundamental issues.

Finance/FinTech (COIN, HOOD, SOFI): Digital asset regulations are clear, platforms are mature, and young users are sticky. Valuations are at three-year lows, presenting opportunities from the drop.

AI & Data (PLTR, ONDS): AI is shifting from computing power to profitable applications, with stable cash flows and clear moats.

Industry giants/Consumer (TSLA, UNH): TSLA is undergoing valuation restructuring, and UNH has steady cash flow. Every pullback is a low-risk entry point.

The overall idea is: short-term trading profits from volatility, while long-term DCA ensures steady growth. Patience + phased position-building is key. 💡

That’s all for today. You can refer to my approach, but be sure to align it with your own pace and risk tolerance. Have you been watching any stocks’ support levels lately? Or do you have any undervalued long-term picks to recommend? Let’s discuss! 🚀

US stocks plummeted, has AI's "honeymoon period" ended?

Today's US stock market can only be described as "frustrating." The three major indices collectively stalled, with the Nasdaq being the hardest hit. Many friends are asking: what exactly happened?

In fact, this sharp decline wasn't due to a single unexpected event but rather several "cold spells" colliding:

1. AI Panic: From "mindless buying" to "starting to chicken out" 📉

Recent AI technological iterations have been too fast, even to the point of scaring the market. For example, Anthropic's automated legal tools directly and precisely disrupted the business models of the software and IT services industries.

Software stocks have been hit hard these past two days. Among the S&P 500's worst-performing companies this year, all nine are software-related, with some already down over 25%.

2. Earnings "Flash Death": Being excellent isn't enough 🚫

This earnings season, the market has become very picky.

Take $AMD(AMD.US). Despite raking in huge profits last year with soaring revenues and earnings, just a slightly conservative outlook for Q1 this year caused a 10% pre-market drop.

Then there's $Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US). Due to forecasts of slowing US sales growth this year, its stock price plummeted nearly 15% last night.

3. "Hawkish" Rumors and Policy Fog 🦅

Rumors are circulating that the Fed's new chair nominee might be very "hardcore" (hawkish), sparking fears that the expected rate cuts might be "off the table." Coupled with the US government's recent brief shutdown affecting employment data releases, this "blind uncertainty" has sent funds rushing into gold as a safe haven.

Gold prices rebounded past the $5,000 mark, a clear safe-haven signal.

The market is now in a "transition period." Investors are no longer buying into simple AI narratives but are reevaluating: who will be the "old wave" crushed by AI? And who are the real "winners" that can monetize?

Final reminder: Volatility is the norm. Don't blindly panic-sell, nor blindly buy the dip halfway. In this "gods-fighting" start to 2026, preserving capital is more important than anything.

Why is the market "falling endlessly"? Core logic: inflation worries coupled with profit-taking in heavyweight stocks. Macroeconomic headwinds. Nobel laureate Steve Hanke and other economists warned today that the Fed may struggle to achieve its 2% inflation target by 2026, with the surge in M2 money supply raising fears of "inflation rebounding." Valuation adjustments for giants. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq weakened today, mainly dragged down by chip stocks and large data service providers. Despite strong earnings from Palantir and others...

After the U.S. stock market opened today, investors were probably stunned: the Nasdaq was in a huge swing, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), Meta and other AI giants faced fierce sell-offs, but $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $AMD(AMD.US) and ASML bucked the trend and rose. At the same time, safe-haven funds even crowded into "benchwarmer" sectors like Coca-Cola and REITs. This isn't just a simple decline—it's a violent portfolio shift "from virtual to real"...

Core support range: $82,000 - $85,000

This is the most solid resistance level in Q4 2025, which turned into a support level after multiple breakthrough attempts.

In technical analysis, once the "path of least resistance" is broken, the original resistance level becomes a strong psychological and technical support.

Observing the volume profile (VPVR) from November to December 2025, this price range has accumulated a large amount of turnover. If today's sharp decline stops within this range, it means the "pullback confirmation" is complete, and the market outlook will be more stable.

Extreme retest level (bull market boundary): $73,000 - $75,000

If market panic gets out of control, reaching this level will be the last line of defense.

This is near the historical high of the 2024 halving cycle.

According to the 111-day moving average (often used as a reference for the bottom of a bull market correction), this value is currently slowly moving up to this range. As long as it doesn't break below this level with heavy volume, the overall bull market structure remains intact.

Core support range: $82,000 - $85,000

This is the most solid resistance level in Q4 2025, which turned into a support level after multiple breakthrough attempts.

In technical analysis, once the "path of least resistance" is broken, the original resistance level becomes a strong psychological and technical support.

Observing the volume profile (VPVR) from November to December 2025, this price range has accumulated a large amount of turnover. If today's sharp decline stops within this range, it means the "pullback confirmation" is complete, and the market outlook will be more stable.

Extreme retest level (bull market boundary): $73,000 - $75,000

If market panic gets out of control, reaching this level will be the last line of defense.

This is near the historical high of the 2024 halving cycle.

According to the 111-day moving average (often used as a reference for the bottom of a bull market correction), this value is currently slowly moving up to this range. As long as it doesn't break below this level with heavy volume, the overall bull market structure remains intact.

Folks, today's 'bloodbath' really stunned many. The market is so green it's scary, but I suggest you don't rush to close your account. Calm down and understand the real reason behind this pullback. The shorts are aggressive, but why is this likely the 'last golden opportunity'? 1️⃣ Logic one: This is a premeditated 'leverage purge.' Look at the liquidation data—the past 24 hours saw shocking liquidation volumes. The market has been consolidating at high levels for too long, accumulating excessive long leverage. The funding rate was consistently high before...

The market is a bit nervous today, coupled with the volatility of options expiration, but I think this is actually a great opportunity to pick up some bargains 💎📈

I've added a few short-term options positions:

LUNR Feb 6 21.5C

BKSY Feb 20 30C

FLY Feb 6 29C

RKLB Feb 6 95C

SOFI Feb 6 26.5C

NBIS Feb 6 100C

RDW Feb 6 Call – Top-up

Also played a lottery-style option for fun 🎰:

OPEN Feb 6 6C, not expensive, let's see if it brings any surprises

Most stocks are plunging today, but while others panic, I dare to act boldly 😏

Also closed my TSLA position.

Now let's see if next week can bring us some surprises 💥

[Market Flash] Just before this weekend, the global precious metals market experienced a "Black Friday" that will go down in history. After weeks of nearly parabolic rises, gold and silver both suffered an "epic" plunge today. The bullish camp collapsed within hours, and the market was engulfed in a wave of panic selling. 1. Plunge data: Shocking red numbers Today's market performance can be described as a "cliff dive," with prices turning sharply downward from the historic highs set this week, a rare drop in recent years: Spot gold fell by about 8% - 10% ...