$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) Earnings Prep Notes:
Bottom line: I think GOOG will be the top performing Mag 7 this year.* Dec Beat Expected: The whisper number calls for $112.5B vs. consensus of $111.5B. If they hit the $112.5B, revenue would be up 16.6% y/y compared to up 15.9% in Sep. If they come in line, growth will be 15.6%.* Guide. They don’t give guidance, only forward looking crumbs on the call. The Street is $104B in March or 15.3%.* Cloud: Cloud whisper revenue is $16.5B. In print is $16.2B. The in print implies a growth rate acceleration to 35.5% y/y vs. 33.5% in Sep, 31.7% in June, and 28.1% in Mar ’25. If they hit the Whisper, it will be up 38.0%. Investors will also watch if the backlog continues its strong after growing 46% sequentially in Sep. Azure grew at 39% in December and Street is expecting AWS to grow at 22% up from 20% in Sep.* Search: Street whisper for Search is $62.0B vs in print at $61.5B, up 13.8% y/y. If they do the $62.0B, that implies 14.7% growth compared to 14.5% in Sep, 11.7% in June, and 9.8% in March. The central question is how is AI Overviews and AI Mode impacting Search, and what percentage of AI Overviews and AI Mode currently shows an ad and how fast will that expand.* Capex: Street is looking for 30% Capex growth in 2026, compared to up 70% in 2025. Amazon is at 18%, Microsoft at 25% and Meta at 74%* Other topics: How many users do they have for Gemini? After Sep they said 650m, up from 450m at the end of June. OpenAI has increased to 900m, up from 800m three months ago.Source: Gene Munster
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