Impact of the US-Iran War on BTC
Personal opinion for reference only.
The situation in Iran has gradually escalated from regional tension to a full-scale war stage, which has a significant impact on BTC. Many people believe that BTC should surge once a war breaks out, but this perception is completely wrong.
First, when the US and Israel went to war with Iran, BTC plunged sharply to 63K. Subsequently, Iran immediately counterattacked, striking multiple military bases of Israel and the US in the Middle East. This was quickly reflected in the market, with the price rising to around 68K. Repeated fluctuations led to massive global contract liquidations. Therefore, the Middle East war will only cause severe volatility in BTC, not a unilateral rise.
In-depth analysis:
1. The reason for the first major drop was the sudden US and Israeli attack on Iran, which caused market panic and a surge in risk aversion, leading mainstream capital to seek non-sovereign assets for safety.
2. The second wave, which bottomed at 63030 and rebounded, was because Iran responded within two hours of being attacked, launching missiles at multiple US military bases. The market saw Iran's attitude and strong response, confirming market sentiment.
3. The brief rise to 68200 was followed by a decline because multiple media confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and several key political figures were killed in an explosion. This news intensified market panic, with concerns that Iran would launch a full-scale war, further escalating the Middle East situation. As a result, global capital began selling risk assets and moving into traditional safe havens such as the US dollar, gold, silver, and US bonds, while also reducing leverage. Oil prices and gold rose accordingly.
4. Bitcoin is no longer the best safe-haven asset channel; it is more like a tech stock, affected by factors such as geopolitics, US stock market trends, and the Federal Reserve.
Situation analysis:
1. If the war continues to escalate, oil prices will rise sharply, inflation will follow, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will be delayed. It is highly likely that the current interest rate will be maintained. Most importantly, the US dollar will strengthen in the short term, increasing pressure on BTC in the short to medium term. With Trump's pressure, the risk in the Middle East will increase, and BTC is likely to experience sharp rises and sudden plunges, leading to two-way liquidations. Therefore, the short-term movement is not a trend. Be very careful. In the short term, BTC will likely test around 62K.
2. In the short term, given the current war situation, the possibility of the conflict escalating is very high. Just now, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was killed in an attack. Ahmadinejad was known as a hardliner and anti-American fighter. His death will directly lead to a significant increase in Iran's retaliation against the US and Israel, which will exacerbate BTC's volatility, causing repeated fluctuations and shaking contracts. At that time, more people will face liquidation, with prices ranging between 65K-70K.
3. Currently, there is a political vacuum in Iran, led by current Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi's governance style has always been moderate, focusing on peace rather than war, and he has been trying to balance between China and the US. If the war eases or shows signs of stopping, the market will regain confidence, and BTC will quickly rise to 70K-72K+ and above. It will use this geopolitical war turmoil to drive up the price of Bitcoin.
Trading strategy:
Blindly going long just because of war is foolish. Typically, at the beginning of a war, the outlook is bullish, but once the war starts, it turns bearish. Counterattacks lead to rallies, and further escalation leads to continued bearishness. This strategy was fully demonstrated in this US-Iran war. Therefore, war equals high volatility. In volatile markets, focus on ranges rather than blindly chasing direction. Only go long or short. If you're unsure, don't act. Preserving capital is profit. If there is a sharp short-term rally, it is not a sign of a bull market but a harvesting machine created by macro events. If you can't find direction or lack confidence in the market at this time, exit quickly or hedge to avoid liquidation risks due to misjudging the situation. Professional investment institutions at this time often don't focus on news or K-lines but pay close attention to global US dollar liquidity. The flow of the US dollar directly drives the risk of certain assets, and BTC is extremely sensitive to many indicators, even more so than US stocks. The logic of many retail investors is: war - BTC as a safe haven - so it should surge. The logic of institutions is: war - liquidity contraction - risk assets fall. What truly affects BTC is whether the US dollar's hegemony is still stable and whether BTC is still needed. Therefore, whether it's war, conflict, or tariffs, what is ultimately being fought is not the war itself but the hegemony of the US dollar, the control and pricing power of oil, whether the US dollar can continue to be printed, and whether US bonds can continue to be paid for by the world.
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