
In today’s pre-mkt summary for subscribers: Stocks were flat as they headed for a third straight weekly drop as investors weigh US and Israel efforts to ease concerns over the Iran war, now entering its fourth week. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and Brent crude +55% since the conflict began. 10-year TYs rose, and gold, silver, and bitcoin all edged higher. $Tesla(TSLA.US) recovered +1% after falling -3% yesterday on a report that NHTSA had moved a key step closer to recalling FSD over safety issues when operated during poor road visibility conditions. We continue to expect equities to reclaim new highs once the conflict ends, oil prices retreat, and slower employment growth boosts odds of a Fed rate cut later this year, with 2026 S&P 500 earnings projected at $310 (+12% YoY) implying a 21.3x P/E = 4.7% earnings yield in line with historic non-recessionary spreads vs 10yr TYs. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) with no position as 2026-2030 earnings estimates decline, as other players ( $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), etc.) scale unsupervised autonomy rapidly, and given its extended valuation (~200x 2026 P/E vs +40% LT growth, 5x PEG).
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