< $SIVE | $SIVEF > at a ~$250M valuation loo

< $SIVE | $SIVEF > at a ~$250M valuation looks like one of the most severe structural mispricing in the optical semi market.

$Lumentum(LITE.US) and $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), have $45B+ valuations today:

Largely because of their control over EMLs and VCSELs that they ship to -> InnoLight and Eoptolink.

For current pluggable transceiver supercycles.

I will keep hammering this home until markets understand:

Sivers has replicated this exact, highly lucrative merchant-supplier model for the next paradigm:

-> CPO and ELS.

And also:

-> Lasers that a massive manufacturer like Jabil is using for the current 1.6T upgrade cycle.

Sivers saw architectures shifting away from EML and became the pure play supplier for CW.

Current Cycle (Pluggables): LITE/COHR supply EML -> InnoLight/Eoptolink build modules -> $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) buy them.

Next Cycle (CPO / ELS): Sivers supplies CW DFB -> $POET Tech(POET.US) Tech(POET.US), Ayar Labs -> flows to hyperscalers like $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US) and others.

However, instead of building up mega fabs with yield/capacity ramp risk:

They transitioned to an outsourced, fabless model for high-volume CW Lasers with Win Semi and effectively de-risked scaling.

So why does it have a $250M valuation during the photonics supercycle?

My opinion:

1. Nobody knows about it yet.

2. Many fund mandates prevents them from buying small caps in Sweden

However, when you start looking at obscure upstream names in hyperscaler light supply chain:

At the top for the light source sits $SIVE.

A small $250M company among $Macom Tech(MTSI.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), Sumitomo and the $10B-$40B+ incumbents.

Again...

A $250M company:

Powers Jabil's 1.6T LRO optical transceivers modules.

Jabil is massive.

As well as Ayar, $POET Tech(POET.US) Tech(POET.US), Enablence/ $ONET and many other names now (that are not disclosed) for diversification.

$SIVE found their way to scale as the lightsource of hyperscaler supply chains for future photonic architectures.

And looks incredibly undervalued, relative to forward TAM expansion and ramp.

Source: Serenity