Serenity

For people out there citing Bank of America quotes now about selling.

Just remember:

They said $EWY/ KOSPI (SK Hynix/Samsung) was an extreme bubble back in March.

And blamed retail for the cause, then implied they should sell Korean memory equities: comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis, .com bubble, and Silver crash.

Then shortly after retail sold their longs, memory rallied to all time highs.

Institutions are not your friends.

Usually when an unusual flood of negative news, they need liquidity.

If you’re curious:

$4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions!

All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later!

It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count!

I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) with stocks in the market, not off followers.

Especially if I’m a good enough investor.

So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized).

I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun.

And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name.

So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.

Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB.

I still feel like it could be the next $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US), just early stage at a $1.4B MC?

They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO)

By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN.

Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure.

But $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw).

And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly).

It basically volume ramps with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US)?

Downside risk?

Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point.

Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside.

Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!".

This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains.

Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China.

So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts.

In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)...

Or just unknown because they named their project something stupid like photonixfab?

Like XFAB Photonics would have been better? so institutions/screeners can connect the dots when looking at CPO silicon photonic foundry players?

Automotive should also coming out of a slump medium term, sped up by self-driving (TSM Chairmain comments yesterday said ai automotive was TSM's growth vector alongside robotics). So their core business also should pick up speed too medium term.

Obviously markets/europeans want a "Nvidia signs $2B+ contract, XFab volume ramping 2027!"

But by then it will be a $9B+ company and you miss out on all the upside. And especially since everyone analyst/institution is blind to volume expectations for these....

Normally don't invest in companies in evaluation stages, but this just seems very de-risked by EU sovereignty + Gov backing, and you have Nvidia + Nokia there for volumes if they can make the IP work.

I think markets are probably missing something here... there's almost 0 value being assigned to being CPO exposure in Europe as their long term upside.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28.

Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute?

There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers…

Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration.

I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T.

So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing…

Then there’s the analyst rumors of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) conversations with $AMD(AMD.US) / $NVIDIA(NVDA.US). Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028.

Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time?

Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected…

Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), and others not really modeled in.

This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal…

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends)

I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining.

And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers.

Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable.

So this is a nice symbolic message for a return to Nvidia’s roots.

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year.

Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances.

Here’s the reason why:

1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $Lumentum(LITE.US) earnings.

Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) contracts.

-> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck

-> Win Semi = bottleneck

$SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck?

Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well).

Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $Sandisk(SNDK.US) controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing.

Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck.

$SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers)

2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) use $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US) (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors)

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) is likely vertically integrated as well.

However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence)

Are all likely designed around $SIVE.

Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) / $Lumentum(LITE.US) back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently)

If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers.

Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $Jabil(JBL.US) designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source.

$SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US), which your hyperscalers use like $AMD(AMD.US) (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1):

If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO…

That makes them a chokepoint.

Just look at the entire CPO $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) as well (where Sivers is default reference).

So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note)

This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $Lumentum(LITE.US) over the next couple years.

All of this should play out next year.

And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher.

Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) / $Meta Platforms(META.US) / MSFT / $Amazon(AMZN.US) from 2025 to 2030.

Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings.

“Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.”

And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components.

And so on…

Ai names don’t move in a straight line up,

but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.

Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $Coinbase(COIN.US), $Robinhood(HOOD.US), $Circle(CRCL.US) and co.

So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills…

To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with things like yields.

And nuking liquidity as they go (but strengthens the USD)

Valuations do seem compelling again if you’re swing trading.

Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today.

Making a certain photonics company:

The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem.

With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains.

Can anyone guess the name?

There we go.

My CPO longs in Taiwan are finally starting to take off today.

Shunsin +10%

Foci +10%

Xintec +10%

Just waiting on Win Semi, Msscorp, and Nextronics to catch up.

Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $Reddit(RDDT.US).

Fully leveraged on the wrong $Virgin Galactic(SPCE.US) (Virgin Galactic) ticker.

Instead of $SpaceX(SPCX.US), which is yet to launch.

I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO.

What an unholy ramp for glass core substrates… (GNC/SEMI projections)

From 2028 onward with 67.2% forecasted compound growth.

Don’t really agree with the chart though, since it should be H2 2026 (start) / H1 2027 (ramp up) rather than 2028?

But regardless overall trend for $LPK to SKC Absolics (011790.KS) is directionally right and very strong.

I still think CPO is probably the most of exponential paradigm shift out of any technology trend though.

But always good to get exposure to multiple.

Per Foxconn shareholder meeting:

CPO switch products expected to begin Q3. 10K units 2026, explosive grow to next year.

Aims/expected to be #1 globally.

Anyone remember which Foxconn subsidiary handles their advanced optical work?

cough.. cough.. Shunsin (6451).

Lot of these exponentially scaling volume shipments won’t show up in balance sheet yet, but will likely soon H2.

This is called frontrunning the next supercycle.

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish:

- $Jabil(JBL.US) pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE

So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess.

- More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.”

CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $Broadcom(AVGO.US) supply chains already.

But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet.

- tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience

Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds.

- “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”…

So that’s volume ramp for space

- U.S dual listing progressing smoothly

No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in.

- “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.”

Too much demand in photonics

- “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well”

Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers)

TLDR:

We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $Lumentum(LITE.US)?”

To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.”

To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought.

Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted.

Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history.

As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

To be fair Trump did tell everyone to buy $Dell Tech(DELL.US), multiple times this year.

He did go out and buy $1-$5M worth of Dell stock himself after all…

But should have seen this coming with Dell blowout earnings. After what happened with $Intel(INTC.US).

If you feel like you’re late, there’s a lot of implications to Dell’s upstream suppliers that markets might not have priced in yet.

Only thing to look at with $SIVE earnings is forward growth.

Nobody cares about pre-development contract earnings from 2025 or last quarter, especially for qualification cycle optical players.

Having 77% growth of opportunity pipelines (revenue volume ramp projections), to $799m

In a quarter is absolutely incredible growth. And, I’d expect to see that continue compounding.

“The company continues to anticipate several volume production starts within AI data centers” (photonics/lasers).

Is also very positive and validates the thesis about volume ramp for photonics.

Now next thing to look at is earnings call transcript, once they’re indexed, which is the most important signal of what’s to come.

Overall, very positive.

Just a shower thought to European media:

Maybe instead of complaining about the influx of capital.

To keep your critical companies alive and subsidize growth.

Maybe welcome it…

So you don’t keep selling off your monopolies or critical chokepoints like ficonTEC from a lack of funding to foreign countries such as China.

Especially when they’re necessary to US hyperscaler supply chains.

Few months ago, a European publication called my $RPI idea:

- “mass stupidity”

And said:

- $RPI shares would: “come crashing back to reality”

Then called it a:

- “Meme stock”.

Earnings report came out? Blew away revenue expectations.

It’s very interesting that media can just write all this slander…

Then pretend it never happened when it ages so badly.

Amount of media slander from $SOI to $SIVE has been pretty incredible.

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities:

$RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis).

$LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly)

$SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates)

$SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers).

$IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies).

$ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals).

And now $XFAB at $9.

I’m not always right.

But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) in IQE) or market returns.

Look who joined team $Nebius(NBIS.US).

5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN(IREN.US).

That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year.

Weebius has plot armor.

Source: Serenity

Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock?

Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time?

They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are.

And have $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) / $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B.

This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag.

$XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics.

The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) pushing 800 vdc.

So $Navitas Semiconductor(NVTS.US), $Power Integrations(POWI.US), $Wolfspeed(WOLF.US) and everyone have been taking off recently.

Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago.

I just happened to point out the connections.

Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.

Source: Serenity

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news?

$Lumentum(LITE.US) down -4.95%

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) down -4.85%

$SIVE down -14.8%

$SOI down -5.73%

$AXT(AXTI.US) down -8.13%

$IQE down -12.13%

I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis).

Just tends to be very volatile on the way up.

Surprised about $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD(AMD.US) or $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside.

$SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week.

I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.

Source: Serenity

Just a fun observation: the only people you see complaining about free research.

Typically have massive paywalls.

And get upset others are disrupting their business models.

I get tons of institutional/hedge fund offers.

But instead of doing things for institutions only or through heavily paywalled subscriptions.

I just publish my ideas to retail investors for free.

I think it’s about time retail has a level playing field?

Source: Serenity

I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE.

Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation.

And likely through local news media too.

Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now.

Source: Serenity