
Today’s pre-market summary: Equities fell as President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants expires Monday at 7:44pm ET. Brent crude rose to $113/bbl and is now +61% since the Feb 28 conflict began. 10y TYs rose to 4.42%, and gold and silver both fell by -5%. #btc rose modestly. $Tesla(TSLA.US) fell amid TSLA/SpaceX merger speculation that could dilute TSLA’s valuation. We believe equities could reclaim new highs post-conflict as oil retreats and sharply decelerating jobs growth accelerates Fed rate cuts; 2026 S&P EPS $310 implies a 21x P/E and 4.8% earnings yield ~40bp above 10y yields, in line with non-recession norms. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) as earnings estimates fall further, as other players (GOOG, BIDU, WRD, PONY, AMZN) ramp up paid unsupervised autonomous ride hailing and NVDA democratizes its AI stack for OEMs, and due to TSLA’s extended 200x 2026 P/E vs +40% LT growth (5x PEG).
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