In today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks fell as Israel-Iran missile strikes continued amid ceasefire doubts. Brent crude jumped to $106/bbl and 10yr treasury yields rose; gold, silver, and bitcoin dropped. While Trump claims Iran is desperate for a deal, Tehran has so far rejected discussions while demanding U.S./Israeli non-aggression guarantees, war reparations, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. With little progress, we believe Trump has no choice but to press on, requiring three conditions to end the war: removal of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to secure 20% of global oil supply, and verified abandonment of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. We continue to see equities reclaiming new highs once the conflict ends, oil retreats, and slowing employment raises odds of quicker Fed cuts. Wall Street’s 2026 S&P 500 earnings forecast of $310 shows solid +13% YoY growth, implying a 21.2x P/E (4.7% earnings yield, ~40bp premium to 10yr yields, consistent with historic non-recessionary spreads). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) as 2026-30 estimates decline, as competitors scale unsupervised autonomy, and carrying an extended valuation (P/E 200x vs +40% long-term growth).