In today’s pre-mkt summary for subscribers: Stocks rose as sovereign bond yields fell amid fears the escalating Middle East conflict will derail global growth and prompt further central bank easing. US/Israeli strikes on Iran continued while Tehran launched missiles across the Persian Gulf; Iran-allied Houthis entered the fray with attacks on Israel. Brent crude jumped to $115/bbl, while 10yr treasury yields fell. Gold, silver, and #BTC rose.
Trump said Sunday he wants to “take the oil in Iran” via occupation of Kharg Island (major escalation likely requiring US ground troops) yet also claimed an agreement could come soon as Iran allegedly “gave” most of 15 US demands (no specifics; Iran has rejected the proposal and issued its own five-point plan including war reparations). We see three conditions needed to end the war: removal of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and verified abandonment of nuclear weapons. We remain bullish on equities post-conflict resolution but cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2026-30 ests and rapid unsupervised autonomy progress by $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) et al.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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