
In today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks rose as President Trump signaled a willingness to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, extending Tehran's control for now. Brent crude held steady at a four-year high of $113/bbl. 10yr treasury yields fell again as investors continued to worry more about slowing economic growth than inflation risks. Gold, silver, and $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) all rose pre-mkt. Trump appears to be concluding that forcing open the Strait would exceed his 4-6 week timeline, prioritizing destruction of Iran's navy/missile capabilities before shifting to diplomatic pressure, continuing his evolving rhetoric on war goals. The U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and is not as dependent on Middle East oil as are our European allies. We expect equities to reclaim new highs once the Iran conflict ends, oil retreats, and slower jobs growth lifts odds of further Fed rate cuts. 2026 S&P earnings ests have risen this past month to $323 (+17% YoY) implying a 19.8x forward P/E and a compelling 5.0% earnings yield vs a 4.3% 10yr treasury yield. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) as its unsupervised autonomy expansion stalls while autonomous competitors and NVDA's unsupervised autonomous platform accelerates; no TSLA position due to rich 185x 2026 P/E.
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