Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks surged (SPX +2.8%, NDX +3.3%) after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire. The deal followed Trump’s announcement suspending planned attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure in exchange for Iran’s immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, buying time for a longer-term agreement to end the six-week conflict. Brent crude plunged 13% to $96/bbl - its largest drop in 6 years - while 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.23%. Gold, silver, and #btc all rose as risk-on sentiment returned as investors discounted the end of the 6-week Iran conflict.
We continue to expect equities to reclaim new highs once the Iranian conflict ends, oil retreats, and slower employment growth boosts odds of quicker Fed rate cuts. S&P 500 2026 earnings estimates have risen to $323 (+17% YoY), implying a 21.2x P/E and 4.7% forward earnings yield, in line with the market’s historic +50bp premium to 10yr treasury yields in non-recessionary environments.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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