
Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary: Stocks rose modestly as investors awaited potential Iran peace talks in Pakistan that could extend a Middle East truce and restore oil flows. Brent crude fell, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged up ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing. Gold and silver slipped while Bitcoin inched higher. $Apple(AAPL.US) fell 0.7% after naming hardware head John Ternus as CEO successor to Tim Cook effective Sept 1. Trump signaled the two-week Iran ceasefire is unlikely to be extended, keeping the Strait of Hormuz blockaded for now. US-Iran peace negotiations are expected to start Tuesday, although Iran has not ruled out or confirmed their participation in talks. We expect equities to reclaim record highs once the conflict ends, oil retreats, and slower employment growth boosts Fed rate-cut odds. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $325 (+17% YoY) fueled by AI/data center investment and higher energy earnings, implying a 21.9x P/E and 4.6% earnings yield in line with historic spreads vs 10yr treasuries. Earnings season and next week’s Fed meeting loom, with no rate change expected. We remain cautious on TSLA due to declining long-term estimates, rising competition in autonomy, and potential SpaceX IPO funding pressure.
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