For the record, I am far more aligned with $Tesla(TSLA.US) longs than shorts. Of all OEMs, TSLA has the greatest chance over the next 12-18 months to exploit the opportunity from unsupervised autonomy as FSD efficacy improves and TSLA continues to traverse the march of nines.
That said, It’s hard to make the TSLA P/E math work if TSLA only offers unsupervised autonomous ride handling in a few states. I don’t see consumers en mass rushing out to buy a robotaxi vehicle with just two seats sans steering wheel and pedals anytime soon. I similarly believe TSLA bulls under-estimate competitors’ abilities to scale up unsupervised autonomous ride hailing with $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Pony AI(PONY.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) already completing 1M paid robotaxi rides per week and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) offering its autonomous hardware/software stack to every OEM. My issue is not lack of understanding or confidence in TSLA’s unsupervised autonomous capabilities. My concern is that at 200x 2026 EPS, the market has already discounted TSLA’s success in achieving unsupervised autonomy and ride hailing without evidence TSLA has the marketing muscle to dominate either in what will surely be crowded spaces. Put simply, I like Tesla the company but not the valuation. For bulls who keep posting $2,500, $3,000, and even higher valuations, kindly show us the math.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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