After-Market Quick Report 2026/05/04

All three major indices declined:

S&P 500: Down 0.4%, closing at 7200.75 points.

Nasdaq: Down 0.2%, closing at 25067.80 points (relatively resilient).

Dow Jones: Down 1.1% (approx. 557 points), the worst performer.

Black Swan Event: The UAE claimed to have been attacked by Iran, raising concerns that the ceasefire agreement reached in April may be invalidated. Brent crude surged 5.8% to $114.44.

Market Sentiment: Although geopolitical tensions have caused volatility, the overall resilience of U.S. stocks remains strong, with corporate profit growth continuing to be a long-term supporting force. Key Sectors and Stock Analysis

Semiconductor/AI Sector:

NVDA (NVIDIA): Closed at $198.45 (-0.56%) today. Technically, NVDA broke below the Fibonacci 0.236 level ($204.47), with an RSI of 67.36, indicating short-term overbought correction pressure.

MU (Micron): Despite the broader market pullback, due to the continued supply shortage in AI memory (HBM) demand, market expectations for MU's earnings are extremely high, and it is currently in an adjustment phase within an uptrend channel.

Defensive Sectors and Unusual Moves: Capital flowed into defensive sectors. Notably, BlackBerry (BB) surged nearly 3%, primarily driven by positive news regarding its QNX software collaboration with NVIDIA and increased penetration in the automotive market.

Tomorrow's (5/5) Outlook and Trading Strategy Suggestions

Key Focus for Tomorrow:

Geopolitical Developments: The Trump administration's "Project Freedom" escort plan is a core variable. If the U.S. military escort is successful and the situation stabilizes, oil prices may retreat, benefiting the broader market; if direct conflict occurs, oil prices could break $115, triggering a deep 2%-4% correction.

Earnings Effect: AMD will release its earnings report after the market closes tomorrow. AMD's guidance for AI chips will directly determine the subsequent trend of the semiconductor sector (including NVDA and MU).

Technical Analysis and Trading Logic:

NVDA Support Level: Focus on the $194.77 (Fibonacci 0.382) support level in the short term. If it holds here, it's a good point to add to positions; if it breaks below, it may test $190.

Strategy Suggestions:

As recent volatility (VIX) has picked up, it is recommended to maintain selling put options (Short Put) to collect premiums in a high-volatility environment, but choose strike prices far from support levels (e.g., around $185 for NVDA).

Monitor sector volatility driven by AMD's earnings. If AMD's performance exceeds expectations, it may lead the semiconductor sector to collectively recover from today's decline.

Personal Recommendation: Tomorrow's market will feature the dual themes of "geopolitical maneuvering + tech stock earnings expectations." Before the situation becomes clear, maintain portfolio flexibility and closely watch crude oil price movements as a risk indicator.