CurryOption
2026.05.21 08:37

$Tesla(TSLA.US) Tesla's volatility has already dropped back to the baseline. The chart on the bottom right shows the implied volatility of Puts and Calls separately over the past year. Last time we observed that the green line (Calls) has now fallen back to the upper edge of past call option volatility, while the red line (Puts) sits at the lower edge of past put option volatility. In other words, although overall volatility has returned to the baseline, call options are still significantly stronger. From the top left chart, we can see the Put/Call volatility spread remains below the zero line, indicating the buying pressure for call option premiums is still relatively strong. Is this related to the clarification of SpaceX's IPO timeline? The top right chart shows recent implied volatility. This chart indicates that options expiring this Friday have particularly strong volatility. Options with other expiration dates are still flat after the stock price formed a top, but the volatility for options expiring on 05/22 has already returned to the highs seen when the stock price was $440. This is unusual because SpaceX's official listing is in early June. There's no reason for this week's options to be dancing around while the options for the listing week are lying flat. I don't understand why this is happening. Could it be that people are expecting some news about SpaceX and Tesla collaboration or a merger to be announced this week? The bottom left chart is the daily position change chart. Options for this week and the next two weeks show a clear trend dominated by call options. However, options expiring on 06/05, which is close to the SpaceX listing date, saw significant call option closing. A total of nearly 20,000 contracts, specifically the 06/05 long positions with a strike price of 475, were closed out during yesterday's trading session. I also don't understand why they wouldn't hold on to wait for the result (SpaceX IPO)? Overall implied volatility has declined, suggesting a 'place your bets and step away' sentiment. But I don't understand why this week's implied volatility has returned to previous highs? And I also don't understand why, if people are so sure about the SpaceX-related theme and have placed their bets, some are choosing to close their positions now?

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