Cover story in Barron’s today about SpaceX IPO summarizing the history of megacap IPOs. I tend to agree that while $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is likely to be overpriced at $2T valuation vs 2025 EBITDA of $6.6B (SPCX EV/EBITDA 300x, $Tesla(TSLA.US) 150x) and 2025 Revs of $18.7B (SPCX EV/Rev 107x, $Tesla(TSLA.US) 16.5x), the relatively low % float to be issued in the SPCX IPO (4%), the fact that NDX and S&P 500 will fast track how quickly SPCX can join its indices, and the distribution power of GS and MS as the two lead bankers should be enough to engineer a first day IPO pop for investors who are allocated shares.
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