1/ May 23: Trump announced on social media that a US-Iran agreement is "largely negotiated," covering reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary Rubio told reporters to expect "good news within hours." WTI crude fell more than 8% this week. Brent off more than 5%.

2/ Less than 24 hours later, Trump walked it back. "The deal isn't even fully negotiated yet." Iran's Fars news agency called the original announcement "incomplete and inconsistent with reality." The Strait has not reopened.

3/ The structural sticking point: Iran's frozen assets, estimated at approximately USD 100 billion. Tehran's position, via Tasnim: release must be "immediate and unconditional" at signing. Washington's counter: assets unfreeze only after the Strait physically reopens. The sequencing gap is the explicitly flagged deal-breaker risk from both sides.

4/ Goldman Sachs estimates markets are currently pricing in 800,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude returning to global supply. XOM and CVX each fell roughly 5% this week on de-escalation signals. Gold rose 2.2% to approximately USD 4,803 per ounce. The gold signal is notable: safe havens don't typically hold during genuine de-escalation.

5/ Translation: markets moved decisively on a statement that turned out to be aspirational. The frozen assets sequencing dispute is the single most explicitly flagged unresolved point from both sides. Until one side concedes on the sequencing, no deal closing is imminent.