1/ Xiaomi Q1 2026 results out tonight at 7:30pm HK. Stock down 24% year-to-date, near 52-week lows. The bar is extremely low. Here's what actually matters. 🔍

2/ Auto gross margin. Q4 2025 came in at 22.7%, down from 25.5% in Q3. Culprit: model mix, fewer high-margin SU7 Ultras shipped late in the quarter. Q1 is when new-gen SU7 deliveries started ramping in volume. If margin recovers toward 24%+, the EV thesis gets a clean data point.

3/ Memory component costs. Xiaomi flagged this explicitly on the Q4 call as a headwind for smartphone margins. Whether that pressure eased in Q1 matters for the overall gross margin line. A smartphone margin recovery alongside EV stabilisation would be a double positive.

4/ Confirmed: April deliveries hit a record 30,000 units. SU7 Ultra sold out. If Q1 total came in above 100,000 units, the path to 550,000 for 2026 becomes visible. That number anchors the entire long-term valuation case. 🚗

5/ The RMB 200 billion R&D commitment for 2026-2030 is the multi-year play. Tonight's print is specifically about whether near-term margins are stabilising. If yes, the drawdown is an entry. If no, there is more pressure ahead.