Xiaomi Q1 2026: The 3 Numbers That Actually Matter

Xiaomi reports Q1 2026 tonight at 7:30pm Hong Kong time. The stock is down 24% year-to-date. Jefferies cut the price target to HKD 26.98. The setup is clear: expectations are depressed, and a clean beat on the right metrics could force a significant re-rating.

Here are the three numbers I'm focused on.

First: Auto gross margin. Q4 2025 came in at 22.7%, down from 25.5% the quarter before. The decline was attributed to fewer SU7 Ultra deliveries in the product mix. Q1 is when the new SU7 generation started ramping. If auto gross margin recovers toward 24% or above, it signals that the Q4 dip was mix-driven and not structural. That single number does more work than any other metric in this report.

Second: Total EV deliveries in Q1. April 2026 hit a record 30,000 monthly units. For the 550,000 full-year target to be credible, Q1 needs to show volume on track. A number above 100,000 for the quarter keeps the thesis intact.

Third: Smartphone gross margin. Xiaomi flagged memory component cost pressure on the Q4 call. If smartphone margins recover sequentially in Q1, it confirms the component cost headwind was transient. If it continues to compress, the overall gross margin story gets more complicated even if EVs stabilise.

The bar is low. The stock is near its lows. Tonight's print is binary in the near term: stabilisation on all three metrics triggers a bounce, continuation of Q4 weakness confirms the bear case.