$IBM(IBM.US)'s stock price has risen 38% in the la

$IBM(IBM.US)'s stock price has risen 38% in the last 11 trading days, mainly due to significant positive news in the quantum computing field, coupled with funding support from the Trump administration, which has triggered strong buying in the market.

We can trace back from options data to see that some funds had already entered the market before the news was released.

IBM announced that it will invest over $10 billion in the next five years to develop quantum computing, with the goal of building a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum system by 2029. This includes R&D, manufacturing, acquisitions, and collaborations.

At the same time, the U.S. Department of Commerce allocated $2 billion through the CHIPS and Science Act to nine quantum companies, with IBM receiving the largest single grant of $1 billion to establish the first "pure-play quantum wafer fab" in the U.S. in Albany, New York.

$IBM(IBM.US)'s stock price has risen sharply recently. From the top-left chart, we can see implied volatility rising sharply, with the stock price (white dotted line) climbing almost vertically, and implied volatility catching up quickly, though slightly lagging.

Meanwhile, the top-right chart shows the volatility spread trend over the past two years. The current volatility spread is deeply negative, indicating that market trading is clearly dominated by momentum-driven bullish buying. Looking back at the data from the past two years, the last time it was this negative was in mid-2024, after which a six-month uptrend followed.

Now the volatility spread is extremely negative, and the current pattern, in terms of both depth and breadth, is unprecedented.

$IBM(IBM.US) is experiencing a rare bullish atmosphere in recent years.

The bottom-left chart shows the change in options positions during a single trading day on Friday. The enthusiasm for opening bullish options positions was overwhelmingly stronger than for bearish options.

The bottom-right chart shows the daily change in $IBM(IBM.US)'s bullish options positions since early April. In this heatmap, we can see an abnormally active bullish options opening signal as early as 05/08, with the strike price heavily concentrated at $260. 05/08 was not the recent bottom of the stock price; the lowest point in the past year occurred on 05/13.

The background of the initial position building on 05/08 was that the stock price was still in a significant downtrend. The continuous large-scale entry of $260 strike price positions was already unusual. After the $260 positions were built, a few days later (05/13), the stock price began to rise from the bottom. The $260 strike price bullish options gradually exited by taking profits, until 05/22 when large-scale bullish options positions emerged due to news catalysts, and the $260 options still chose to close their positions at that time.

Below are two key time nodes:

May 21st → CHIPS Act + Anderon quantum wafer fab news officially released (first wave of positive news)

May 28th → IBM's $10 billion quantum investment + Project Lightwell news officially released (second wave, stronger catalyst)

On 05/22, a large number of bullish options positions appeared, continuing until 05/29 when the scale of position building intensified further, completely driven by news-led bullish buying. During this sharp rise, options positions with strike prices set at $260 were usually one step ahead and conservatively liquidated in batches during the uptrend to lock in profits early.

Frankly speaking, the above two policy-level positive developments are certainly very beneficial for $IBM(IBM.US). However, for these things to translate into actual revenue is a distant future.

Will the stock price rise further?

Of course, it's possible. After all, the potential for more support from the Trump administration cannot be ignored. But this is a completely different logic from the stock price rise of $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), which is based on actual revenue backing.