The AI IPO Floodgates Just Opened: How I Would Read the Rush
In one week we got OpenAI confirming a confidential filing, Anthropic in the pipeline, and SpaceX's book running about twice oversubscribed, with roughly USD 150 billion of demand against a USD 75 billion raise. SpaceX prices on the 11th and trades on the 12th.
Here are the three things I would keep in front of me before chasing any of them:
- Demand is not value. A 2x oversubscribed book tells you the hype is real, not that the price is right. SpaceX at around USD 1.75 trillion is priced for Starlink and Mars both working.
- Profitability is uneven. SpaceX has Starlink cash flow behind it. OpenAI is still spending heavily to grow. These are not the same risk, even if they list in the same month.
- Day-one liquidity cuts both ways. The names everyone wants tend to gap on open. I would rather watch the first few sessions and let the float settle than buy the headline at any price.
I am interested, but I am patient. Generational companies still trade at silly prices on day one, and the market usually gives you a second look.
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