
$Tesla(TSLA.US) (-2.8%) behaving about as well as other long-duration NDX tech stocks today ($NVIDIA(NVDA.US) -2.4%, $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) -2.6%, NDX -1.0%) in this higher-for-longer interest rate environment. I believe many retail investors buying $Space Exploration Tech(SPCX.US) this week will lighten up on their TSLA positions to fund their SPCX shares. I continue to believe that lead bankers $Goldman Sachs(GS.US) and $Morgan Stanley(MS.US) will engineer a Day 1 pop for SPCX IPO investors, given huge potential paydays from Anthropic and OpenAI in the months ahead. That said, I continue to view SPCX as richly priced at 300x 2025 EV/EBITDA and 120x expected 2026 EV/EBITDA assuming a $1.8 trillion market cap ($135/share) and 2026 EBITDA of $15 billion, vs 35-40% expected long-term EBITDA growth (3-3.5x PEG), and would wait for the stock to come back to earth post-IPO before buying shares post-IPO.
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