$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Since the Blue Origin ro

$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) Since the Blue Origin rocket explosion, stocks in the space industry have been acting strangely. $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) stock price has been highly volatile, and in the short term, it's also been affected by the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, showing a clear phenomenon of "fund rotation + sell the news." Last Friday, the stock price fell 15.53%, and the current price is $82.41.

The most clear positive catalyst recently is that AST SpaceMobile has confirmed that BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 will be launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral on June 17.

These are next-generation satellites with larger communication arrays and expected peak speeds nearly doubling. In the direct-to-cell market, $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) has patent protection in terms of technology and has also signed contracts with telecom operators. Currently, I believe it has the technological capability to share the market with SpaceX in the direct-to-cell service field.

But whether a company can operate well isn't solely about technological strength.

The stock price is vastly different from the current revenue. Investors must subsequently see a steep revenue growth curve; otherwise, it's insufficient to support the current stock price.

The top-left chart shows the implied volatility over the past two years. In this chart, we can clearly see the significantly declined stock price while volatility remains high. This is a relatively positive aspect I see in today's data, but how positive this is must be judged with the help of the Put/Call volatility spread.

The top-right chart shows the recent trend of the volatility spread. This chart looks quite unfavorable because, despite such a large drop in stock price, the main trading pattern is still chasing to buy call options. The volatility spread has been in a deeply negative state most of the time. Very few market participants are buying Puts to hedge against the price drop; everyone is still in the fervent speculative atmosphere of buying on every dip.

For the stock price to rise sharply, it naturally needs speculative frenzy to boost it. However, during the process of price correction and consolidation, if it doesn't trigger panic and spur a frenzy of chasing to buy put options, it's very unfavorable for the price correction and consolidation. In plain terms: the deleveraging of the long positions hasn't been completed yet.

Only after removing the long positions can favorable conditions for the next big rally be brewed.

Looking at the bottom-right chart, the correlation coefficient analysis between stock return and volatility, as expected, the current correlation coefficient still maintains a significantly positive correlation. The stock price has fallen so much, but compared to February and April this year, we cannot determine that the price correction is complete based on the existing data.

The bottom-left chart is the option position change chart from last Friday's trading. There is still a more noticeable increase in call option positions, but put option positions have also started to increase, which is a good sign. I think the stock price shouldn't rush to rebound subsequently. It would be a better state if it could consolidate weakly and let the bullish trading sentiment cool down.

Summary: The stock price has already fallen so much, but the analysis data surprisingly suggests "it hasn't fallen enough yet."