
U.S. stocks surged pre-market (SPX +1.2%, NDX +2.1%) after the U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement halting their war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day nuclear negotiations, with formal signing set for June 19 in Switzerland. Brent crude fell -4.9%, 10yr treasury yields declined, and longer duration AI/tech and beaten up consumer discretionary names rose as consumer confidence was poised to recover. I’ve argued for weeks that equities should reclaim their record highs as the Middle East conflict concludes, as oil prices retreat and employment growth slows. S&P 500 earnings have continued to rise during the Iran conflict, with 2026 EPS ests now at $342 +23% YoY reflecting increased AI investment. All eyes are on this week’s Fed meeting, which is Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed Chair.
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