The avg price of a gallon of gas has risen from $2.98/gallon before the U.S.-Iran war to $3.86/gallon over the July 4th weekend after peaking at $4.56/gallon in June. The rise in gas prices is likely what caused the surge in 2Q EV deliveries YoY ( $Tesla(TSLA.US) +25%, $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) +14%, $Lucid(LCID.US) +20%) rather than recent advances in FSD/autonomy, which are still virtually unknown by most potential EV customers.
OPEC+ has a preliminary agreement for another modest oil quota increase in August, raising the prospect of more supply eventually hitting the market again if a US-Iran peace pact can stick. If ratified at a video conference on Sunday, seven major nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 188,000 barrels a day to their output target. The tiny on-paper hikes are starting to add up: it will mean they’ve added 940,000 barrels a day to quotas, equivalent to almost 1% of global demand, since the war began.Oil futures have tumbled 43% from their war-time peak of $118/barrel at the end of April to $72 a barrel today, with many forecasters predicting the re-emergence of a global glut. OPEC and its partners could soon face a choice between restraining output or fighting over market share via a potential price war. I expect $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY’26 earnings ests, which could boost TSLA price targets. That said, at a 2026 P/E of 200x+ vs +35% long-term (2027-2032) EPS growth, which equates to a 6x PEG vs 2x for $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), etc., I continue to see $Tesla(TSLA.US) as fully-priced.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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