Gary Black Tracker
2026.07.06 09:25

U.S. stocks rose pre-market Monday (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as tech stocks rebounded ahead of this week’s Samsung and SK Hynix 2Q earnings, which will test the continuing viability of the AI trade. $Tesla(TSLA.US) recovered +1.3% pre-mkt after falling -7.5% Thursday and crushing Q2 deliveries (480K vs 406K est) amid surging 2Q gas prices as a result of the Iran conflict. Brent crude fell 1% to $71/bbl as Hormuz flows recovered. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.9x P/E and a 4.6% earnings yield, in line with 10-year treasury yields. I remain cautious on TSLA given likely commoditization of unsupervised autonomy in the coming year and a stretched valuation relative to forward earnings growth (6x PEG).

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