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Aug 28 at 10:56 AM
With $SIVE, you're paying EXTREMELY premium 2027 multiples for a "what if" scenario.
That is: What if Sivers' $1.2B opportunity pipeline converts into *actual* sales by roughly H2 2027.Whereas with $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): you've already got revenue that's sold out, LTAs to 2028-30, shipping today, on 30-50% GMs. No "what if" needed.So either:1. $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) and even $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) are VERY cheap right now [5-14x 2027 sales].2. Or Sivers is VERY expensive right now [~35x 2027 sales based on my current modelling].I'll share a post later/this weekend for more detailed comments.
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