1 day ago, 11:56 AM
Just a quick macro note.
Feels like the broader market will move sideways for the next 2-4 weeks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see some pressure on high beta names.That said, fundamentally, nothing's changed w/ solid earnings across most sectors especially AI/semis names.Stocks are in a huge bull marke, even factoring in the July dip in semis (useful to zoom out here w/ loads of names up 2-4x YTD). History tells us that this kinda bull market ends with a Fed hike / recession. Recession won't happen imo, but it's currently unclear if the Fed hikes...and to what extent? I ultimately feel like it needs to happen at some point - Sep or Dec. Get it done with lol.Seasonality could come into play too w/ midterms usually being bad for equities pre-election, then good for equities post-election. Historically, Sep is a down month before Q4 and pre-Xmas period being positive. Lots of data around this.In terms of catalysts, Iran/US always the hottest topic these days. Oil price impacts and second-derivative equities impacts. For AI/Semis, you've also got the GS Communacopia + Technology Conference soon w/ OpenAI etc all doing fireside chats. On top of $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) earnings this week.Time will tell whether MU earnings can re-rate memory names, or AVGO earnings have the same impact for the broader semis ecosystem. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) didn't really have that effect, so I kinda doubt AVGO will.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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