Goldman Sachs: Global Optical Transceiver Shipments

> Shipment & Forecast Revisions: Goldman Sachs raised global optical transceiver shipments for 2026–28E by 21%/31%/31%. For 1.6T and above, shipments were raised by 29%/61%/50% for 2026–28E, driven by higher rack-level/ASIC server shipments, increased optical module usage per GPU, and specification upgrades.

> Market Size Projections: The global optical transceiver market is expected to reach US$68bn in 2026E, US$131bn in 2027E, and US$148bn in 2028E. The 800G and above segment is projected to grow at a +69% CAGR to reach US$45bn, US$108bn, and US$130bn respectively.

> Volume and Speed Milestones:

800G/1.6T shipment volumes are projected at 45m/33m units in 2026E, growing to 49m/71m units in 2027E.

3.2T shipments are expected to ramp up to 23m units in 2027E and 68m units in 2028E.

> Technology Adoption: Silicon photonics is expected to account for 60% of 800G, 80% of 1.6T, and 80% of 3.2T optical transceivers.

$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)