US stocks paused (SPX +0.2%, NDX flat) ahead of Tuesday’s inflation data, developments in the NVDA case and Anthropic’s …
US stocks paused (SPX +0.2%, NDX flat) ahead of Tuesday’s inflation data, developments in the NVDA case and Anthropic’s IPO kickoff. Brent crude fell 3% to $90/bbl, and is now down 24% in 10 days on Trump’s more conciliatory Iran tone. The 10yr treasury yield inched ahead +0.2bp to 4.88%. Markets now price over 80% odds of a Fed hike next month. Tech stocks are mixed, with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +1.6% to $178; $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US) all up slightly. $Tesla(TSLA.US) -0.5% and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) -0.4%. S&P 2026 EPS estimates ($369 +33% YoY, P/E 20x, earnings yield 5.0%) have shown no degradation since last week’s landslide Dem victories in the mid-terms. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to its extended valuation (2026 P/E 218x, PEG 4.8x), negative forward earnings revisions, and the continued commoditization of autonomy.
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