Top 10 Influencers in 2024After reaching the world peak, how will NVIDIA move? Short-term, medium-term, long-term
Yesterday morning, I saw $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) surge again in the night session, which felt a bit crazy.
(Also, tonight is Quadruple Witching Day, with trillions in derivatives expiring, so volatility should be higher.)
Lately, I’ve been a bit worried that this AI frenzy might be peaking (though I don’t know exactly when).
Coincidentally, StockPro from Microsoft also mentioned this yesterday at noon, suggesting gradually reducing short-term positions:
I agree with this:
$3.3 trillion—it’s already surpassed my aggressive target of $3 trillion (for 2024). Beyond this, I’m not sure about the future trend since it’s beyond my understanding. Everyone has a fear of heights.
But I know many in the community plan to hold for 10 years, so these minor fluctuations won’t affect them—life goes on as usual.
What to do?
Short-term view:
The short-term trend has already broken. Apart from NVIDIA, TSMC, SMCI, and others are in the same boat—long bearish candles with huge trading volumes last night.
For those who bought call options, it’s time to manage risk—either reduce positions or hedge. (Disclaimer: Not investment advice! My predictions might be wrong!)
Hedging can involve buying puts on the underlying stock, or buying $GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF(NVD.US), or buying put options and selling call options. (Newbies should avoid options, and no one should go all-in on them.)
Medium-term view:
It’ll likely mirror April’s pullback and consolidation.
If the market stays strong, another rally might follow (though I doubt it’ll exceed $3.5 trillion this year). If not, that’s probably it.
Long-term view:
Next quarter (guidance already provided) and the quarter after are relatively certain—growth will remain strong.
But in 2025 (calendar year), growth will slow significantly due to reduced capital expenditures from major clients (NVIDIA’s top 10 customers account for 60-70% of revenue):
This chart was shared in May—2025 growth will slow considerably compared to 2024’s massive surge. I estimate NVIDIA’s 2025 revenue growth at 30%-40%, similar to some analyst reports (though newer ones might revise upwards).
Also, NVIDIA’s rise has been too fast. I expected a gradual climb until around November, when the market would start pricing in 2025’s slowdown, coupled with geopolitical risks from the U.S. election. But instead, half a year’s gains exceeded my one- or even two-year projections.
I’ve been feeling lost lately because we’ve blown past my aggressive targets. I’ve hinted at this subtly in the community.
The flood of replies shows many are also worried about a peak:
Whether this is a minor correction in the frenzy or the end of it, I’m not entirely sure (I’ve always believed that in a bull market, high-growth companies have no clear top—valuation comes from both earnings and sentiment, but sentiment is hard to gauge).
Also, seeing some friends and netizens suffer heavy losses on options last night, I’ll briefly comment:
Yesterday, UPBOptionMil’s data showed a clear shift—investors increased put positions and reduced calls on NVIDIA, with heavy trading in $135 and $130 puts. The market is clearly nervous (options are a leading indicator—worth analyzing regularly).
Tonight’s Quadruple Witching could bring even wilder swings. Betting solely on calls or puts is risky (I’m leaning bearish short-term).
Some course materials might help here.
In high-volatility scenarios, a long straddle/strangle (buying both a call and a put) can work—profiting from big moves either way (though not foolproof, it’s conservative).
If the stock stays flat, you lose both premiums. (Conversely, selling straddles/strangles earns double premiums if you expect low volatility.) Details here: Section 2: Long Straddle/Strangle (Expecting Wide Swings)
It’s complex—keep learning about options.
Check out @Yeeeee’s textbook-perfect journey: My First Options Trade 📝 Learning Diary
Went up dozens of times:
Focus on how they learned.
Wishing everyone profits and good sleep.
Feel free to ask StockPros questions—exchanging ideas can uncover great insights and stocks.
Again: Not investment advice.
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