morning_wind
2024.10.31 00:35

$LI AUTO-W(02015.HK) is going to announce its earnings report today. From the performance of US stocks last night, the market is clearly looking forward to this earnings report. Here’s my take on it:

1. Sales and pure electric vehicles are clear indicators. They definitely won't disclose too many details about next year's new products in the earnings report just to please the market. However, the earnings report being ahead of schedule indicates that they are prepared.

2. Last time before the earnings report, there were concerns about gross margin, but it stabilized. This time, without a mega impact, gross margin should not be an issue and may even recover.

3. In this quarter, there has been a lot of positive feedback in the market. Let's see if the earnings report will disclose or forecast some positive information. This is the point I am most looking forward to personally.

4. Although they definitely won't disclose new product details, will they at least give a rough idea about next year's product schedule to help the market recalibrate next year's sales and growth targets, thereby opening up upward space? However, this is uncertain and could be postponed to the next quarter or held in a separate press conference.

5. More disclosure of supercharging information, including plans for next year and financial impacts. Positively, it should be accelerated in advance, and the market has already seen actions in this regard. Cautiously, will the financial impact be significant? Will some situations be disclosed in the earnings report? I understand that it mainly depends on the cooperation model at the end points, whether it will be heavy assets or light operational assets in the future.

6. Going overseas. The US is impossible, and the product compatibility in Europe is poor and currently facing tariffs, which is also not feasible. The focus is still on the Middle East and Central Asia, which was originally planned for early this year but was halted due to the mega impact. Recently, they have been working on it again, establishing a new first-level department, attempting to shift from parallel exports to self-operated. Let's see if more will be disclosed in the earnings report. This is my second point of expectation for this earnings report.

All of the above are positive expectations; now let's discuss the cautious side.

7. Production capacity has not been cleared, and the entire industry is still in high-intensity competition. I do not hide my admiration and recognition for the management of Li Auto. However, it must be noted that in such a relatively poor landscape, even with excellent management and company, the final outcome may only yield ordinary returns, and the risks may not be small, so position management should be cautious.

Finally, related interests: I am a Li Auto L9 owner and currently hold over 10% of the shares. There are no plans to reduce holdings as long as the stock price remains below 150.

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